deepdarkblue
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 16,001
I miss stylish Obi.
Duke Basketball 2016-2017
- Thread starter SeanMayTriedToEatMe
- Start date
DukeCrow
All American
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2012
- Messages
- 1,188
Well, aside from the fact that Grayson almost destroyed Amile's knee and ended his basketball career, it was an uneventful CTC. Can't wait for the season to start so we can all cringe at Tatum's ill advised, Kobe-esque turnarounds when he's being guarded by someone 3 inches shorter.
And Matt still hasn't learned how to finish in the lane…
And Matt still hasn't learned how to finish in the lane…
rome8180
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 8, 2012
- Messages
- 52,043
I was there. My take:
1) Jayson Tatum - Bad shot selection except that he's Jayson Tatum. Clearly the best player tonight.
2) Frank Jackson - Second best player. He looks insanely quick and has a great crossover and ability to split the double team. No one can keep him out of the lane. He looks like a better PG option that Grayson at this point. I will be surprised if he stays more than one year.
3) Grayson Allen - Almost killed Amile and Matt. Looked out of sorts and played generally badly. However, he still had 10 points in 20 minutes. This is what counts as subpar for Grayson. Also, see #5.
4) Amile - Was initiating offense from the top of the key a ton. Had one spotty moment where he tried to dribble up the court in traffic, and he took one bad shot, but otherwise looked like what we'd expect.
5) Matt Jones - Absolutely hounded Grayson Allen on defense. Would barely let him get the ball. Allen was visibly frustrated. If this were a game not against his teammates, Bilas would be on SPN praising his defense right now. Also hit his usual corner threes.
6) Marques Bolden - Large. He has a tendency to travel on his post moves. But a good soft touch and ability to draw fouls. Also some nice moments of at-the-rim defense.
7) Chase Jeter - Offense is still mainly dunking. Still fouls too much. He did play fairly even with Bolden.
8) Luke Kennard - Was missing every shot in warmups, but looked nice during the game. I didn't love the decisions he made in the lane, but his shooting was on point. Came off curls well. Knew when to drift to the left corner for an open three. He just understands offensive spacing.
9) Javin DeLaurier - I didn't notice much on offense or defense, but I seem to remember he had a lot of rebounds. Based on the layup lines, he would have won this year's dunk contest if we had one.
10) Jack White - Surprisingly good shooting stroke.
1) Jayson Tatum - Bad shot selection except that he's Jayson Tatum. Clearly the best player tonight.
2) Frank Jackson - Second best player. He looks insanely quick and has a great crossover and ability to split the double team. No one can keep him out of the lane. He looks like a better PG option that Grayson at this point. I will be surprised if he stays more than one year.
3) Grayson Allen - Almost killed Amile and Matt. Looked out of sorts and played generally badly. However, he still had 10 points in 20 minutes. This is what counts as subpar for Grayson. Also, see #5.
4) Amile - Was initiating offense from the top of the key a ton. Had one spotty moment where he tried to dribble up the court in traffic, and he took one bad shot, but otherwise looked like what we'd expect.
5) Matt Jones - Absolutely hounded Grayson Allen on defense. Would barely let him get the ball. Allen was visibly frustrated. If this were a game not against his teammates, Bilas would be on SPN praising his defense right now. Also hit his usual corner threes.
6) Marques Bolden - Large. He has a tendency to travel on his post moves. But a good soft touch and ability to draw fouls. Also some nice moments of at-the-rim defense.
7) Chase Jeter - Offense is still mainly dunking. Still fouls too much. He did play fairly even with Bolden.
8) Luke Kennard - Was missing every shot in warmups, but looked nice during the game. I didn't love the decisions he made in the lane, but his shooting was on point. Came off curls well. Knew when to drift to the left corner for an open three. He just understands offensive spacing.
9) Javin DeLaurier - I didn't notice much on offense or defense, but I seem to remember he had a lot of rebounds. Based on the layup lines, he would have won this year's dunk contest if we had one.
10) Jack White - Surprisingly good shooting stroke.
DukeCrow
All American
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2012
- Messages
- 1,188
Here's Amile being supremely lucky that he was aware enough to start turning as soon as he saw Grayson diving into his knees. If he hadn't turned just enough to shift the impact to the back of his legs instead of the side, he would no longer have an intact ACL or MCL.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxCxXiJUpxPFV2JyQU9jYVJXaEk
(Not sure what the best way to link a non-YouTube video here is. If there's a better way, let me know.)
BTW, the replay is available on WatchESPN.
http://www.espn.com/watchespn/index?rb=true&watchsrc=true&id=2896291&channel=accextra#
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxCxXiJUpxPFV2JyQU9jYVJXaEk
(Not sure what the best way to link a non-YouTube video here is. If there's a better way, let me know.)
BTW, the replay is available on WatchESPN.
http://www.espn.com/watchespn/index?rb=true&watchsrc=true&id=2896291&channel=accextra#
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,087
Updated March rotation projection based on one 20-minute scrimmage in October during which Brennan Besser got significant playing time:
PG Grayson Allen (32), Frank Jackson (8)
SG Matt Jones (20), Frank Jackson (12), Luke Kennard (8)
SF Jayson Tatum (28), Luke Kennard (12)
PF Amile Jefferson (28), Harry Giles (8), Jayson Tatum (4)
C Harry Giles (20), Marques Bolden (20)
Total minutes:
1 Grayson Allen 32
2 Jayson Tatum 32
3 Harry Giles 28
4 Amile Jefferson 28
5 Marques Bolden 20
6 Frank Jackson 20
7 Matt Jones 20
8 Luke Kennard 20
DNP:
Javin DeLaurier
Chase Jeter
Sean Obi
Antonio Vrankovic
Jack White
Harry Giles replacement until recovery:
Javin DeLaurier
PG Grayson Allen (32), Frank Jackson (8)
SG Matt Jones (20), Frank Jackson (12), Luke Kennard (8)
SF Jayson Tatum (28), Luke Kennard (12)
PF Amile Jefferson (28), Harry Giles (8), Jayson Tatum (4)
C Harry Giles (20), Marques Bolden (20)
Total minutes:
1 Grayson Allen 32
2 Jayson Tatum 32
3 Harry Giles 28
4 Amile Jefferson 28
5 Marques Bolden 20
6 Frank Jackson 20
7 Matt Jones 20
8 Luke Kennard 20
DNP:
Javin DeLaurier
Chase Jeter
Sean Obi
Antonio Vrankovic
Jack White
Harry Giles replacement until recovery:
Javin DeLaurier
childress22
All American
- Joined
- Oct 8, 2012
- Messages
- 7,945
A few thoughts based on watching on video:
1) Defense seemed pretty decent, despite the good shooting. Further along at this point than some of our other recent teams.
2) Tatum does a lot of different basketball things pretty well. Good job getting his hands in passing lanes.
3) Matt and Grayson both look a bit leaner and faster. As Rome said, Matt played great D.
4) Jackson: wow. He's clearly got a great shooting/finishing touch. That paired with his athleticism should help him score really well.
1) Defense seemed pretty decent, despite the good shooting. Further along at this point than some of our other recent teams.
2) Tatum does a lot of different basketball things pretty well. Good job getting his hands in passing lanes.
3) Matt and Grayson both look a bit leaner and faster. As Rome said, Matt played great D.
4) Jackson: wow. He's clearly got a great shooting/finishing touch. That paired with his athleticism should help him score really well.
childress22
All American
- Joined
- Oct 8, 2012
- Messages
- 7,945
One more thought: with Giles or Amile at the 4, I think this team's offense would be best with a screen-and-roll 5. Yesterday, Jeter did that better than Bolden.
DrKlahn
All American
- Joined
- Oct 8, 2012
- Messages
- 9,512
Kenpom is out: Duke #1 overall, #1 offense, #18 defense. Defense feels a bit high, but at least the height of this team should keep it from ever going 100+ as we've become accustomed to.
The Pomeroy ratings are also the first time I pay attention to the schedule. A few things stand out.
1) Maine: awful! That game looks completely useless, surely there are better schools that don't mind North Carolina's laws.
2) It's possible that we might play only one (or zero) teams outside the top 50 after January 7. Wake is the clear worst opponent after that date, but even they might sneak into the top 50.
3) Not many schedule losses this year. Assuming that UNLV is as bad as it looks, I count three.
a) @Virginia Tech, 12/31. Ten day rest before first true road game, and Pomeroy sees VT as a top-40 team.
b) @Notre Dame, 1/30. Second road game in three days, plus it's Notre Dame.
c) @Miami, 2/25. Second plane trip in four days, plus it's Miami. Plus it's on CBS and Duke is required to look like shit on CBS once a year. Best to get that out of the way in February.
The Pomeroy ratings are also the first time I pay attention to the schedule. A few things stand out.
1) Maine: awful! That game looks completely useless, surely there are better schools that don't mind North Carolina's laws.
2) It's possible that we might play only one (or zero) teams outside the top 50 after January 7. Wake is the clear worst opponent after that date, but even they might sneak into the top 50.
3) Not many schedule losses this year. Assuming that UNLV is as bad as it looks, I count three.
a) @Virginia Tech, 12/31. Ten day rest before first true road game, and Pomeroy sees VT as a top-40 team.
b) @Notre Dame, 1/30. Second road game in three days, plus it's Notre Dame.
c) @Miami, 2/25. Second plane trip in four days, plus it's Miami. Plus it's on CBS and Duke is required to look like shit on CBS once a year. Best to get that out of the way in February.
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,087
The ACC regular season and tournament will be tougher to win than the NCAA tournament. 5 ACC in the top 12. 7 in the top 24. 10 in the top 40. 12 in the top 51.
The 2 seed's expected path in the ACCT would be 24 Miami, 7 Virginia, 1 Duke.
The 2 seed's expected path in the ACCT would be 24 Miami, 7 Virginia, 1 Duke.
2001Dukechamps
All American
- Joined
- Nov 7, 2012
- Messages
- 1,778
2001Dukechamps
All American
- Joined
- Nov 7, 2012
- Messages
- 1,778
Apparently our frontcourt will collectively churn out a higher assist rate than our backcourt this year.
Last edited by a moderator:
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,087
In this post, I will seek to answer the question of how many injuries Duke can have to its best players while remaining a top 10 team this season.
Kenpom projects Syracuse to be the #12 team this season. Xavier is #11, but comparing Duke's stats and talent level to Xavier's seems much less useful than comparing Duke's stats and talent level to Syracuse, given that Duke and Syracuse have recently played similar schedules and recruited from roughly similar talent pools. So I'll compare Duke's roster with Syracuse's and see how they stack up as Duke's best remaining player is removed from the roster one by one.
Syracuse's roster, in order of projected value based on a subjective magic formula:
1 PF Tyler Lydon (sophomore, 9.7 BPM last season)
2 C Paschal Chukwu (sophomore transfer, 6.2 BPM last season played on Providence)
3 SF Tyler Roberson (sophomore, 5.8 BPM last season)
4 SG Andrew White (senior grad transfer, 5.7 BPM last season on Nebraska)
5 C DaJuan Coleman (senior, 5.3 BPM last season)
6 SG Tyus Battle (freshman, composite #36 recruit)
7 SF Matthew Moyer (freshman, composite #67 recruit)
8 PF Taurean Thompson (freshman, composite #74 recruit)
9 PG John Gillon (senior grad transfer, 2.2 BPM last season on Colorado State)
10 PG Franklin Howard (sophomore, -1.2 BPM last season)
Duke's roster:
1 Amile Jefferson (10.3 BPM last season in limited minutes)
2 Grayson Allen (9.7 BPM last season)
3 Harry Giles (composite #2 recruit)
4 Jayson Tatum (composite #4 recruit)
5 Luke Kennard (6.3 BPM last season)
6 Matt Jones (6.0 BPM last season)
7 Frank Jackson (composite #13 recruit)
8 Marques Bolden (composite #15 recruit)
9 Javin DeLaurier (composite #39 recruit)
10 Chase Jeter (0.3 BPM last season)
11 Antonio Vrankovic (-2.2 BPM last season in limited minutes)
12 Sean Obi (-3.3 BPM last season in limited minutes)
13 Jack White (composite #226 recruit)
Looking at the basic BPM and recruiting numbers, is Duke better than Syracuse on paper if we remove Jefferson? Probably.
If we remove Jefferson and Allen? Probably.
If we remove Jefferson and Allen and Giles? Starts to get dicey.
I would say Duke would be in or around the top 10 this season if Duke were to lose its three most valuable players to injury. That's reassuring, because Duke will lose several players to injury this season.
Kenpom projects Syracuse to be the #12 team this season. Xavier is #11, but comparing Duke's stats and talent level to Xavier's seems much less useful than comparing Duke's stats and talent level to Syracuse, given that Duke and Syracuse have recently played similar schedules and recruited from roughly similar talent pools. So I'll compare Duke's roster with Syracuse's and see how they stack up as Duke's best remaining player is removed from the roster one by one.
Syracuse's roster, in order of projected value based on a subjective magic formula:
1 PF Tyler Lydon (sophomore, 9.7 BPM last season)
2 C Paschal Chukwu (sophomore transfer, 6.2 BPM last season played on Providence)
3 SF Tyler Roberson (sophomore, 5.8 BPM last season)
4 SG Andrew White (senior grad transfer, 5.7 BPM last season on Nebraska)
5 C DaJuan Coleman (senior, 5.3 BPM last season)
6 SG Tyus Battle (freshman, composite #36 recruit)
7 SF Matthew Moyer (freshman, composite #67 recruit)
8 PF Taurean Thompson (freshman, composite #74 recruit)
9 PG John Gillon (senior grad transfer, 2.2 BPM last season on Colorado State)
10 PG Franklin Howard (sophomore, -1.2 BPM last season)
Duke's roster:
1 Amile Jefferson (10.3 BPM last season in limited minutes)
2 Grayson Allen (9.7 BPM last season)
3 Harry Giles (composite #2 recruit)
4 Jayson Tatum (composite #4 recruit)
5 Luke Kennard (6.3 BPM last season)
6 Matt Jones (6.0 BPM last season)
7 Frank Jackson (composite #13 recruit)
8 Marques Bolden (composite #15 recruit)
9 Javin DeLaurier (composite #39 recruit)
10 Chase Jeter (0.3 BPM last season)
11 Antonio Vrankovic (-2.2 BPM last season in limited minutes)
12 Sean Obi (-3.3 BPM last season in limited minutes)
13 Jack White (composite #226 recruit)
Looking at the basic BPM and recruiting numbers, is Duke better than Syracuse on paper if we remove Jefferson? Probably.
If we remove Jefferson and Allen? Probably.
If we remove Jefferson and Allen and Giles? Starts to get dicey.
I would say Duke would be in or around the top 10 this season if Duke were to lose its three most valuable players to injury. That's reassuring, because Duke will lose several players to injury this season.
deepdarkblue
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 16,001
2001Dukechamps said:
I'm not a fan of the Amile-as-ball handler experiment. It's nice that he can do it if necessary, but I'd rather he be established near the post or ready to set screens up top than to be bringing the ball up court.
Last edited by a moderator:
