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Duke Basketball 2017-2018

Let's take a look at Duke's biggest competition (IMO): Arizona.

They lost 15.1 win shares with Markkanen, Simmons, Comanche and Allen departing for the NBA.

They return Rawle Alkins (4), Dusan Ristic (3.8), Allonzo Trier (3.1), Parker Jackson-Cartwright (2.9), Keanu Pinder (1.1)

DeAndre Ayton is their Bagley: 8 win shares.
Emmanuel Akot is similar to V.J. King of Louisville, so he's at 1.6 win shares.
Brandon Randolph is similar to Kobi Simmons (2.4) so we'll project him at 2.5 win shares.
Ira Lee is similar to Ike Anigbogu of UCLA, who posted 1.3 win shares, but will receive fewer minutes. Let's put him at 1 win share.
Alex Barcello is similar to Quentin Goodin of Xavier, who posted 0.7 win shares. Barcello likely won't receive as much burn given the Cats have PJC and Trier and Alkins. Let's place him at 0.5 win shares.

That's 13.8 win shares from the freshmen.

Ristic has averaged 1.1 win share increase per annum, so let's bump him up to 4.9 win shares.
Let's assume Rawle Alkins sees a modest increase because of Trier's return and bump him up to 5 win shares.
Trier only played half the games last year and posted 3.1 win shares. Let's say he gets 6.2 win shares.
Jackson-Carwright has averaged .7 increase in win shares. Let's bump him up to 3.6 win shares.
Let's just assume Pinder, who is the least talented on the roster, stays flat at 1.1 win shares.

That's 34.6 total win shares.

I fully anticipate a Duke-Arizona matchup in the national championship. Bagley vs. Ayton. Allen, Duval, and Trent vs. Trier, Alkins, and PJC. Bolden and Wendell versus Ristic and Ira Lee.
 
Random things from a K interview with Seth Greenberg today:

-- Allen was kept away from basketball for three months; had a "minor" ankle surgery; fully healthy now

-- Bolden is 15 pounds lighter

-- K really hates limitations on how much time they can spend with the players in the summer; he harped on that for at least five minutes
 
Felt like adding to this. Let's assume the player comps are legit.

Bagley is freshman Sullinger: 17 ppg
Allen is a mix between soph and junior year: 17 ppg
Trevon is Fox: 16.5 ppg
Carter is Favors: 12.4 ppg
Trent is freshman Harris: 12.9 ppg
Bolden is freshman Dakari: 5.2 ppg

That is 81 points per game. Let's assume 3 points per game combined out of Tucker, O'Connell, DeLaurier, White, Vrankovic, and Goldwire.

84 points per game would be the most Duke has scored since the vaunted Jay Williams/Carlos Boozer/Mike Dunleavy squad. We had essentially a 6-man team back then, too.

I think it's definitely possible. Very exciting time.
 
ZackM said:
That's quite the projection.
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Lol. I take it you don't agree? Where am I the most wrong, iyo? Duval? Trent?

I think if you removed the names from the comparisons and just looked at the players in a vacuum, it'd be easier to digest without second guessing yourself as being too homerish. Like, someone's view of the De'Aaron Fox-Trevon Duval comparison might be a bit skewed now that Fox is on the Sacramento Kings and Duval is just a freshmen in college.

I know all recruiting classes aren't the same, and I know all recruits ranked number 5, for example, don't produce the same amount. However, Duval is number 5 on 247 and the number 2 point. Fox was number 7 and the number 2 point. Thy are similar enough that it shouldn't be laughably crazy, IMO.
 
I will cut my own penis off if Carter averages only 12.4 ppg while Trevon averages 16.5. In fact, I would bet you Carter is our second leading scorer after Allen. I would bet that because I have actually watched a lot of Carter's games and am basing it on that instead of just randomly deciding he's like Derrick Favors and locking him into identical numbers.

Your whole direct-player-to-player-comparison system doesn't make any sense.
 
rome8180 said:
I will cut my own penis off if Carter averages only 12.4 ppg while Trevon averages 16.5. In fact, I would bet you Carter is our second leading scorer after Allen. I would bet that because I have actually watched a lot of Carter's games and am basing it on that instead of just randomly deciding he's like Derrick Favors and locking him into identical numbers.

Your whole direct-player-to-player-comparison system doesn't make any sense.
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I don't think Carter will average more than Bagley.

I have watched some of Carter and I could definitely see him averaging 15-16 ppg. I think a reasonable person could switch Trevon and Wendell's projected stats.

How does the general system not make any sense? I'm just shooting for ballpark. Wendell is very similar in body type, skill set, size, and ranking to Favors. You are acting like I'm saying Alex O is going to be Len Bias or something. I think frankly the Javin and Vrank love I've seen makes less sense than what I've proposed.
 
Carter is a more polished scorer than Bagley. We can disagree there. That's fine. The insanity comes in when you have Duval averaging more than him. He's a gifted, polished, efficient scorer. Duval can barely shoot.

One problem with your system is that it takes superficial similarities as absolutes and takes no context into account. Wendell Carter is also very similar in body size, skill set, and ranking to Elton Brand. Why not him? Or why not compare him to Jared Sullinger? And why don't Favors or Fox's coaching or teammates factor in at all when looking at their production?

But in general, I'll just say it again: I will cut off my own genitals if your Duval and Carter projections turn out to be right. They are good projections for what Fox and Favors did on totally different teams as different players though.
 
rome8180 said:
Carter is a more polished scorer than Bagley. We can disagree there. That's fine. The insanity comes in when you have Duval averaging more than him. He's a gifted, polished, efficient scorer. Duval can barely shoot.

One problem with your system is that it takes superficial similarities as absolutes and takes no context into account. Wendell Carter is also very similar in body size, skill set, and ranking to Elton Brand. Why not him? Or why not compare him to Jared Sullinger? And why don't Favors or Fox's coaching or teammates factor in at all when looking at their production?

But in general, I'll just say it again: I will cut off my own genitals if your Duval and Carter projections turn out to be right. They are good projections for what Fox and Favors did on totally different teams as different players though.
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All of this is fair. You guys are older and smarter than I am. That is why I'm posting here. Need to get better.

I do think Duval is going to shoot a very high percentage on 2-point field goals. Most will be layups or dunks.
 
In order for Duval to have the efficiency of Fox -- which would be middling efficiency for a guard under Duke's system -- he will indeed need to shoot a very high percentage from two. This could happen. He's very fast and athletic like Fox. He will need to have a high FT rate. This seems doable as well. He will also need to up his FT percentage quite a bit. This seems harder.

My biggest concern is whether K lets Duval push the pace. In my view, Fox and other non-shooting guards benefit from a fast pace of play. It affords them easy baskets in transition, before the defense is set and can sag off them and seal the lane. UK last year has the #26 adjusted pace. Duke's was #175. UK doesn't always play fast, but Duke is pretty reliably middle of the road in tempo. Will K change it up next year, especially considering how many big men he has and how big men usually lead to a slower pace? The only time in recent years we had a pace close to #26 was in 2011, when we had Kyrie for 11 games and when our big men were gazelle like the Plumlees.
 
rome8180 said:
In order for Duval to have the efficiency of Fox -- which would be middling efficiency for a guard under Duke's system -- he will indeed need to shoot a very high percentage from two. This could happen. He's very fast and athletic like Fox. He will need to have a high FT rate. This seems doable as well. He will also need to up his FT percentage quite a bit. This seems harder.

My biggest concern is whether K lets Duval push the pace. In my view, Fox and other non-shooting guards benefit from a fast pace of play. It affords them easy baskets in transition, before the defense is set and can sag off them and seal the lane. UK last year has the #26 adjusted pace. Duke's was #175. UK doesn't always play fast, but Duke is pretty reliably middle of the road in tempo. Will K change it up next year, especially considering how many big men he has and how big men usually lead to a slower pace? The only time in recent years we had a pace close to #26 was in 2011, when we had Kyrie for 11 games and when our big men were gazelle like the Plumlees.
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This is very interesting and something I hadn't thought about. Good stuff. It will definitely be interesting to see if K trusts Trey enough to go up tempo more often. He should- I would. Mistakes are to be expected early in the year and I hope K doesn't get too frustrated like he ostensibly did with Frank (I can't tell how much was frustration and how much was injuries). I think Bagley and Carter would be just fine running the floor. DeLaurier, as well. Not sure about Bolden and Vrank. If Bolden has truly molded himself into good shape, that would be a huge plus.
 
Bolden looks absolutely ripped and has lost 15 pounds. Whether that translates into better motor, who knows. A lot of motor is mental.

I am 100% in favor of a long leash on all PGs. Though the modern game is not remotely comparable to the early 90s, watch some video of any game with Hurley at the point. He was allowed to freelance, to do dumb shit, to be high-risk/high-reward. Williams had the same freedom in the early 2000s. Those were also some of our fastest paced teams. Of course, pace in general has slowed since then.
 
rome8180 said:
Bolden looks absolutely ripped and has lost 15 pounds. Whether that translates into better motor, who knows. A lot of motor is mental.

I am 100% in favor of a long leash on all PGs. Though the modern game is not remotely comparable to the early 90s, watch some video of any game with Hurley at the point. He was allowed to freelance, to do dumb ****, to be high-risk/high-reward. Williams had the same freedom in the early 2000s. Those were also some of our fastest paced teams. Of course, pace in general has slowed since then.
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Yeah! I know he's not the most popular thing on here, but I'm excited about Bolden. I remember watching the Virginia State game last year and thinking he'd average 10 and 5 while playing good defense and be gone. I know he had trouble with fouls and going up strong for boards and finishes, but I wonder how much injuries and the subsequent poor conditioning affected that.
 
His lack of defensive rebounding is the most troubling part. It would be bad for a guard, let alone a guy his size.
 
ACC slate released today, teams of interest listed below:

Duke
Home/Road: North Carolina , Wake Forest , Virginia Tech, Pitt
Home: Florida State, Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame
Road: Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State, Boston College

North Carolina
Home/Road: Duke, NC State, Clemson , Notre Dame
Home: Miami, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Pitt, Boston College
Road: Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse

NC State
Home/Road: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Clemson, Notre Dame
Home: Florida State, Miami, Duke, Louisville, Boston College
Road: Georgia Tech, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Syracuse

Notre Dame
Home/Road: Boston College, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, NC State
Home: Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Pitt
Road: Clemson, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, Syracuse

Virginia
Home/Road: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Syracuse
Home: Clemson, North Carolina, NC State, Boston College, Notre Dame
Road: Florida State, Miami, Duke, Wake Forest, Pitt

Link to full lineup: http://raycomsports.com/sports_labs_doc ... t=matchups
 
Of note for Duke, it appears that Boston College will be the first road game in December, so we can add them and the road trip to NCState as losses. Positives include no terribly hard road trips as we get Cuse, UVA, FSU, Notre Dame, and Louisville at home. Positives for me include a road trip to GaTech and Clemson, as my younger brother will be a senior at CU next year I will try to make that game. We *SHOULD* get a 1 seed for the ACC tournament with this schedule, especially given that national title favorites, UNC, have to go on the road to face the top half of the ACC.
 
Highlights of the new video clip on Twitter . . .

Marques with a reverse layup.

Trevon hits a mid-range jump shot. (Edit: it was a three!!)

Wendell hits a hook.

Javin with a nice drive for a slam.


41-0.
 
AxeS24 said:
Highlights of the new video clip on Twitter . . .

Marques with a reverse layup.

Trevon hits a mid-range jump shot.

Wendell hits a hook.

Javin with a nice drive for a slam.


41-0.
Click to expand...

Post the fucking tweet. :!:
 
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