Duke Men's Basketball 2013-2014 Discussion Thread

[rome8180]

Yeah, I was looking at that one. And we can't even blame fouls for that.

2.5 ppp? Or around there? That must be a record of some kind.

 

[DurhamSon]

Zack can you post that data in .csv form?

 

[ZackM]

Interesting. Definitely appears to be correlated, but not that strongly at all that we can take anything from it.


My god what is that dot in the bottom right quadrant. The Wake forest game?

That was Clemson in the ACC Tournament.

 

[ZackM]

Possessions, Points, Opp Points, OEff, DEff

Its possible that possessions are off by +/- 1. I was eyeballing them in the KenPom game tracker.

13,16,8,1.231,0.615
10,10,22,1.000,2.200
11,18,14,1.636,1.273
8,12,6,1.500,0.750
9,16,10,1.778,1.111
10,16,12,1.600,1.200
13,16,13,1.231,1.000
10,15,15,1.500,1.500
13,19,25,1.462,1.923
9,9,8,1.000,0.889
11,15,6,1.364,0.545
11,11,9,1.000,0.818
9,11,9,1.222,1.000
9,13,14,1.444,1.556
7,11,2,1.571,0.286
9,2,8,0.222,0.889
9,10,18,1.111,2.000
7,11,8,1.571,1.143
7,9,6,1.286,0.857
6,11,2,1.833,0.333
8,13,8,1.625,1.000
19,24,23,1.263,1.211
5,9,6,1.800,1.200
16,23,24,1.438,1.500
8,10,7,1.250,0.875
8,8,9,1.000,1.125
10,9,18,0.900,1.800
10,13,11,1.300,1.100
7,6,4,0.857,0.571
13,6,21,0.462,1.615
13,14,18,1.077,1.385
6,7,15,1.167,2.500
12,10,13,0.833,1.083
12,10,15,0.833,1.250
13,11,20,0.846,1.538

 

[childress22]

Is there something inherent in a high-risk defense that makes it less effective during the closing minutes of games? Doesn't seem to hurt Louisville.

I don't think so; at least, most of our teams have played a similarly high-risk defense, and they've never seemed this vulnerable on D down the stretch before. And if I think about '98 Kentucky's pressure D against us in the last 10 minutes of that Elite Eight game, I not only get nauseous (that was my favorite squad, despite Wojo), but I think that it worked just fine for Kentucky.

 

[rome8180]

Is there something inherent in a high-risk defense that makes it less effective during the closing minutes of games? Doesn't seem to hurt Louisville.

I don't think so; at least, most of our teams have played a similarly high-risk defense, and they've never seemed this vulnerable on D down the stretch before. And if I think about '98 Kentucky's pressure D against us in the last 10 minutes of that Elite Eight game, I not only get nauseous (that was my favorite squad, despite Wojo), but I think that it worked just fine for Kentucky.

I should have put a qualifier: Is there something about a BAD version of high-risk defense that makes it less effective down the stretch? Like, does it somehow just show its true colors in crunch time?

 

[rhfarmer]

I think K probably drums it into these guys heads not to foul, in order to keep the clock moving. Having the other team score without the clock advancing makes closing out in stall ball much more difficult.

 

[DurhamSon]

zack do you have that foul data?

 

[ZackM]

What do you need?

 

[DurhamSon]

same format as the other five variables. is it not from that same set?

 

[ZackM]

Oh, sorry. Didn't even realize I didn't include it.

 

[ZackM]

Fouls added to the end.

13,16,8,1.231,0.615,21
10,10,22,1.000,2.200,29
11,18,14,1.636,1.273,20
8,12,6,1.500,0.750,18
9,16,10,1.778,1.111,17
10,16,12,1.600,1.200,21
13,16,13,1.231,1.000,20
10,15,15,1.500,1.500,20
13,19,25,1.462,1.923,18
9,9,8,1.000,0.889,17
11,15,6,1.364,0.545,14
11,11,9,1.000,0.818,15
9,11,9,1.222,1.000,15
9,13,14,1.444,1.556,19
7,11,2,1.571,0.286,14
9,2,8,0.222,0.889,23
9,10,18,1.111,2.000,23
7,11,8,1.571,1.143,16
7,9,6,1.286,0.857,17
6,11,2,1.833,0.333,21
8,13,8,1.625,1.000,16
19,24,23,1.263,1.211,25
5,9,6,1.800,1.200,28
16,23,24,1.438,1.500,16
8,10,7,1.250,0.875,18
8,8,9,1.000,1.125,19
10,9,18,0.900,1.800,26
10,13,11,1.300,1.100,15
7,6,4,0.857,0.571,11
13,6,21,0.462,1.615,27
13,14,18,1.077,1.385,20
6,7,15,1.167,2.500,13
12,10,13,0.833,1.083,18
12,10,15,0.833,1.250,29
13,11,20,0.846,1.538,22

 

[DurhamSon]

Thanks.

Looks like the team fouls explaining the degradation in efficiency theory has legs. Just playing around with Defensive efficiency plotted as a function of team fouls and there appears to be a significant correlation between the two.

 

[bdotling]

You all should tweet this to Keeley to

1) get DukeForum cited in her article
2) get her on our board
3) ?
4) profit

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

? = all of us sending her dick pics.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

? = all of us sending her dick pics.

Yeah, i think i went out of order because I completed Step 3 in November.

 

[DrKlahn]

UNC in ACC play:

Minutes 1-30: +29
Minutes 30-end: +53

First 30 minutes:
932 possessions
940 points for (1.01 PPP)
911 points against (.98 PPP)

Last 10 minutes plus State OT:
368 possessions
461 points for (1.25 PPP)
408 points against (1.11 PPP)



Why did any of us even watch this season?

 

[DrKlahn]

Defensive turnover rates (the good kind):

National best: 25.6% (VCU)
National worst: 12.0% (Quinnipiac)
ACC best, conference play: 19.4% (Syracuse)
ACC worst, conference play: 13.5% (Virginia Tech)

Duke, first 30 minutes, ACC play: 21.5% (top 25 nationally)
Duke, last 10 minutes, ACC play: 10.2% (bad)

Since the UNC game and including Mercer, the number is actually 7.2%. A better way to describe it is this: Duke forced 11 turnovers in the final 10 minutes of its last 9 games. Five of those were by Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. One of the others was due to the worst call in college basketball history.

Making matters worse, Duke also got worse at generating stops when not forcing turnovers. Opponents' points per effective possession (which disregards possessions with turnovers) was 1.24 for the first 30 minutes, 1.38 after that. (ACC average was 1.27. Boston College, a fair measuring stick of all things bad defense, was 1.38.)


In consecutive games against Duke and Pitt this month, UNC forced 15 turnovers in the final 10 minutes.

 

[deepdarkblue]

I'm still baffled by how we couldn't ever close out a game. How are you good at basketball for 30 minutes, then totally suck at it for 10?

 

[physicsfactor]

Guys. It was stallball.