Duke Men's Basketball 2013-2014 Discussion Thread

[ZackM]

Conference play, including conference tournament:

First 30 minutes of the game:
925 possessions
1102 points for (1.19 PPP)
900 points against (0.97 PPP)

Final 10 minutes of the game plus Syracuse OT:
333 possessions
401 points for (1.20 PPP)
414 points against (1.24 PPP)

Again, despite perceptions that stallball, zone defenses, etc. had an adverse effect on Duke's offense late in games, Duke's offense pretty much maintained its efficiency throughout the game. The defense, on the other hand, went from being second best in the ACC (behind Virginia's ridiculous .91) to being substantially worse than Boston College's league worst 1.17.

I just crunched the numbers for the final 5 minutes over the course of the season....

First 35 minutes:
O - 119.39
D - 99.38

Final 5 minutes:
O - 120.80
D - 121.65

Pretty consistent with the final 10 minutes. Actually, the 5 minutes from 10:00-5:00 appears to be the worst.

 

[DrKlahn]

It tends to rule out game preparation, doesn't it?

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

It seemed like players figured Duke's offense out as games went on.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Also the foul situation. But would be 1st half end too.

 

[DrKlahn]

Duke was +67 in conference play in the last 10 minutes of the first half.

 

[DrKlahn]

Duke in conference play.

Minutes 0-10 +52
Minutes 10-20 +67
Minutes 20-30 +74
Minutes 30-end -13

One of these doesn't belong.

 

[rome8180]

These numbers are the worst thing I've ever seen. They're the statistical equivalent of poking an open wound.

What made me think this team could win a tournament game?

 

[DurhamSon]

Duke in conference play.

Minutes 0-10 +52
Minutes 10-20 +67
Minutes 20-30 +74
Minutes 30-end -13

One of these doesn't belong.

What the fuck. Either every single opposing team we played fundamentally changed the nature of their offense the last ten minutes (nope) or... I don't even know what to say. I can even come close to pinpointing this shit. Even if I scramble and say something like "motivation, intangibles", I thought K's greatest strength was getting players not to play like pussies.

 

[bdotling]

Either we were really stupid where the first 30 minutes we just played to our superior natural instincts but in crunch time we got overwhelmed by K's adjustments and completely froze or really scared of screwing up to the point where we just screwed up.

Prolly a little of both

 

[DurhamSon]

Hire a fucking team psychiatrist or some shit. Jesus christ there should never be a disparity like that in any season, ever.

 

[DrKlahn]

I'd love to see players' offensive and defensive efficiency after reaching a certain number of fouls. Like I get the strong feeling that certain players fell off the map on both ends after reaching their third fouls.

 

[DurhamSon]

Only thing that even kind of makes sense is conditioning. But that doesn't make total sense either since the offense didn't change.

 

[childress22]

Nerves / pressure / anti-clutchness?

 

[rome8180]

Someone elsewhere suggested lack of communication. But why did the players stop communicating during the most important stretch of the game? Or maybe it's just that this type of defense requires sooo much effort and communication that asking that level of focus for 40 minutes was too much? If so, it could explain why the mass substitutions seemed to help (but that would also work with the conditioning theory).

Is there something inherent in a high-risk defense that makes it less effective during the closing minutes of games? Doesn't seem to hurt Louisville.

 

[rome8180]

The only good thing to come out of all this:

Boring Jabari Parker @BoringJabari
I'm disappointed that we did not win because if we won we would have gone to the round of 32.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

It has to be mostly the foul situation. A feeling of importance by each player because they knew if they fouled out, Semi would come in and lose the game for sure.

 

[rome8180]

But it's not like we were in foul trouble in every game.

 

[ZackM]

 

[rhfarmer]

I think these types of things become self reinforcing. When a team, collectively, feels like the collapse is coming, it comes. That's the only thing I can think of. They had a few games early on where this pattern developed, and then there started to be this expectation that it would happen and so it happens. It's very quantum.

 

[DurhamSon]

Interesting. Definitely appears to be correlated, but not that strongly at all that we can take anything from it.


My god what is that dot in the bottom right quadrant. The Wake forest game?