Player Jahlil Okafor

[aiw]

It might not matter when you shoot them, but it does matter if they are going to foul you or not.

 

[DurhamSon]

The sandbagging deal K made with Chuck Okafor is paying off. Okafor gets the hardware he was promised in the recruiting trips, and now Duke actually gets to run a good offense

 

[deepdarkblue]

Tenacious D!!!

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Okafor post ups are like bonds in your portfolio, if this makes any sense. A 40 year old will ideally allocate 10-20% of their portfolio to bonds, from which you can expect decent (i.e., above national inflation), consistent, low-risk returns. You'll get about 3% returns with bonds over the long run and, even over the course of only one year, you'll rarely get awful returns. They smooth out your overall performance from year to year. They're not what you rely on to win big, though, and even when they perform well, raising them to a much larger portion of your portfolio isn't going to be able to get you positive returns when your other more volatile investments are tanking.

The guards and Winslow are your stocks. They should be the bulk of your portfolio, about 80%, because they return about 7% over the long run. But they're not as consistent as bonds, so they're generally high risk. When they go bad, you will get crushed, and your consistent 3% returns from the bonds isn't going to save the occasional awful year out of your 30-40 year time horizon before retirement. It really doesn't matter what your bonds do from year to year. You'll have a few big losing years out of 30-40 with this portfolio, but you'll win much more over the long run than if you were heavily invested in bonds. Your ceiling is much higher. If you were to use all bonds and no stocks at all, you simply would not beat a decent portfolio over the long run.

The nice thing is, Duke is one of only a small number of teams in the country with a bond fund. Other teams may try to go with 10-20% usage of post ups, but the guy posting up needs to be amazingly talented to get you decent returns since post ups are so relatively inefficient. Okafor post ups smooth out the results from game to game, but they have very little impact on whether Duke wins or loses - they are never going to get you crazy efficiency or miserable efficiency. It's all about the guards and Winslow shooting well and not turning it over. The more Duke has to depend on and use Okafor in any given game, the lower the ceiling is for Duke's performance in that game. Duke is going to need a high ceiling to beat other elite teams, so if the guards and Winslow suck and Duke needs to rely on a ton of Okafor post ups in the Elite Eight and beyond, then Duke might as well forfeit.

 

[physicsfactor]

Or Duke could step up to be a top 5 defense.

Ha

 

[physicsfactor]

 

[DrKlahn]

And these are taxable bonds because of Okafor's defense.

 

[childress22]

Good metaphor, SMTTEM.

They key is going to be how we get our guards open looks if Okafor is single-teamed. We know our starting backcourt is very good, but also short and not particularly fast. Against zones or teams that double, I think we've got it down okay. But in man coverage against solid defense? Notre Dame may have sucked at defense on the year, but their guys -- Jackson and Grant in particular -- played tough man-to-man last night. Winslow could iso Vasturia and get by him, too.

When we screened with the 4-man yesterday, Notre Dame could easily switch, and even Auguste is quick enough to not be a liability if switched onto a guard.

I think/assume that most teams that single-team Oak from here on out will do so with a slow center, so maybe we can run Okafor in a lot of ball screens (although Marshall is better at setting those).

 

[TyusStones5]

chs told me Oak is why we won't win it all. :(

 

[aiw]

Probably right.

 

[Slap the Floor]

chs told me Oak is why we won't win it all. :(

I was half trolling half serious when I made that thread. Don't believe everything I say over there. The place is a cesspool, it's fun to get people going every now and then.

 

[duke9fan]

You're chs? Never knew that

 

[ZackM]

LOL

 

[rome8180]

So what's the strategy if teams do starting playing Okafor with single-coverage? The obvious solution is to play Marshall more and have him set a ton of screens. But is there something that Coach K would realistically be willing to do (besides just dumping into the post over and over)?

 

[ChibCU]

As long as our guards don't put up miserable offensive numbers (like in the ND game), dumping it into the post for high ppp is fine.

 

[childress22]

We could try to put Oak in an occasional ball-screen every couple of possessions, too. Against teams with smaller 4s, we could post Justise up a couple of times and see if he'd draw a double eventually.

 

[ChibCU]

But if you are saying our guards are reliant on doubles down low to get looks, well we have a problem regardless.

 

[childress22]

But if you are saying our guards are reliant on doubles down low to get looks, well we have a problem regardless.

Our guards are reliant on doubles down low to get looks. Or transition. Or ball screens.

 

[rome8180]

Which is why I was thinking that Okafor either has to be willing to set ball screens or we have to play Marshall more. There are typically not a lot of transition opportunities in tournament play.

 

[childress22]

Amile's a good ball-screener in general, although that's less of an advantage against teams like ND who have a 4 who can cover guards. Most teams aren't like ND, though.