Personal big board:
1. Victor Wembanyama
2. Scoot Henderson
I expect the consideration of anyone else at #2 to be remembered as pure smokescreen.
3. Brandon Miller
Unassisted at-rim FG% is disastrous and a huge red flag on the court. Ultimately, numbers everywhere else are too good to deny.
4. Amen Thompson
Far from a perfect prospect, but as a cellar team, you take your chances on another Anthony Edwards, even a poor man’s version.
5. Ausar Thompson
Less upside.
6. Taylor Hendricks
7. Cam Whitmore
Close. Whitmore appears to be the better athlete, with more upside to create offense as a 1st or 2nd option. Hendricks a higher floor and great potential as an elite 4th or 5th option who makes open shots and defends. Should come down to fit.
8. Grady Dick
I think if he were black, he’d be getting consideration at #6. Seeing rave reviews from the pre-draft process about his total offensive game and not-terrible defense.
9. Cason Wallace
Known as the best perimeter defender in the draft, and his shooting numbers aren’t bad at all for a possibly raw offensive prospect. The Calipari factor (ineptly holding back elite pro prospects during their college season, who then explode in the NBA) is hard to ignore at this point. I would put him even higher and be a complete outlier, but it’s hard to disrespect the time and effort the paid writers have put into evaluating these guys.
10. Dereck Lively
Nerds love Jaren Jackson and Evan Mobley for their overall value that casuals don’t recognize. Lively will require a bit more work coming out of college to get to that level, but there’s no doubt he has that potential (monster versatile defender and decent 4th option on offense). I think he could’ve shown much more offensively, for better or for worse, on a less talented college team.
First four picks look to be locked in, so I would start trying to trade down at 5. If you can get Utah’s 9, 16 and 28 for 5, I would do it, and I don’t think Utah would be dumb to consolidate some picks if they love someone still there at 5/6. The Pistons are in an unusual position of being a cellar team that isn’t going to necessarily target a ball-dominant star on offense, and the Magic are in an unusual position of basically only having room for 3 and D wings. 9 is probably Hendricks or Dick, 16 is probably a low floor, high upside wing, and 28 can probably be paired with a high 2nd round pick to ensure a depressed asset like Dariq Whitehead or GG Jackson.