Pomeroy

[aiw]

Ken did a bunch of math to prove what we already knew.

 

[aiw]

Wisc AdjO 127.4

 

[ZackM]

Wisc AdjO 127.4

That's fucking absurd. They can beat Kentucky.

 

[DrKlahn]

TrustInKen


Sorry, I didn't see that you were on this already.

 

[aiw]

Looks like a tax form.

 

[aiw]

SEVENTEEN

 

[torontoduke]

A 10 position jump?

 

[aiw]

73-68. 70%

 

[aiw]

Oak moved from 4th to 3rd for kpPOY with his dominant performance today.

 

[childress22]

There's no formula. At the end of the season, Pomeroy just bumps based on eye test.

 

[DrKlahn]

Pomeroy studiously reads college basketball message boards and ranks teams based on whose fans make the best case.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Two national champions in Kenpom history, since 2002, finished at #17 defense or worse: the repeat champion Florida team and UNC 2009, of course.

No coincidence that those two are the most obvious switch-flipping teams in terms of defensive effort since 2002.

Can Duke 2015 be the third? Can they prove that their regular season was all about loafing to a 1 seed, with try-hard games only when it really mattered?

Alas, Izzo is the big roadblock in Duke's way to a title this season.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke has lowered its adjusted defensive efficiency by 0.028 ppp over four NCAA Tournament games.
2009 UNC lowered its adjusted defensive efficiency by 0.025 ppp over six NCAA Tournament games.

Duke's game by game performance thus far, compared with what Kentucky's defense would be projected to do:

Robert Morris offensive efficiency vs. Duke - 0.889 ppp
Season adjusted offensive efficiency - 1.014
Projected offensive efficiency vs. Kentucky - 0.935

San Diego State offensive efficiency vs. Duke - 0.803 ppp
Season adjusted offensive efficiency - 1.023
Projected offensive efficiency vs. Kentucky - 0.940

Utah offensive efficiency vs. Duke - 0.891 ppp
Season adjusted offensive efficiency - 1.125
Projected offensive efficiency vs. Kentucky - 0.991

Gonzaga offensive efficiency vs. Duke - 0.881 ppp
Season adjusted offensive efficiency - 1.186
Projected offensive efficiency vs. Kentucky - 1.021

This is kind of crazy. Duke's defense in the NCAA Tournament is performing on a level Kentucky for the season is not close to.

 

[DrKlahn]

Interesting. Opponent 3FG% is only slightly lower (24.1%) than what Kentucky has allowed over the full season (26.7%), and opponent FT% has been better than Kentucky, so it's hard to chalk it up to luck.

 

[DurhamSon]

I really, really hope they institute the 30 second shotclock in the next year or two. With all the changes in skillsets and rules that have made our press and overplay somewhat obsolete, I think it would be a huge boost to K's defensive scheme if we could force teams to execute their offense in less than 20 seconds for most possessions. We already in the last month seem to be finding a way to finally cause turnovers for the first time in fucking ever. If the shotclock was 30 seconds or less going forward, this might be viable for the rest of his time here.

 

[TyusStones5]

Our defense rules.

 

[childress22]

Glad we didn't switch mid-season to some three-point-allowing bullshit like the pack-line. Just sayin'.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

The Pyth rankings of the teams at the top of kenpom this year are far more impressive than in recent years. I know nova and uva lost early but those two plus the current top 4 are the best group of top tier teams in a very long time I think. Duke is lucky to not have to play any of them before the potential champ game although they were unlucky in getting two top ten teams back to back in Houston.

 

[rome8180]

One thing that's interesting is that we have the second best defense of any team left standing at #18. Granted our defense has actually been the best in the country during the tournament, but overall it's a surprisingly weak field of defensive teams.

Wisconsin's defense has actually gotten worse during the tournament.

 

[best4heisman]

No team has won a national title without a KenPom top 25 defense, and Wisconsin is trying to do that with a defense outside of the top 50. Granted, beating UK and Duke would surely give their defense a huge boost, I don't think there's any way they could move up more than 20 spots.