UNC Basketball 2018-2019

[rome8180]

Granted, I bet White's minutes increased throughout the year. Probably at least 33 in games that mattered.

 

[deeyoukayeee]

I think they are a 3 seed or higher. No offense but your posts in this thread feel like more rationalizing.

Maybe. I think the posts constructing a title contender out of Cole and the seven dwarves are way too chicken littleish. I've seen Bacot play personally a half dozen times in the VA prep league, and feel like there is absolutely nothing to indicate he, Brooks, Robinson, Manley, Huffman or Platek are anything but average to below average DI players next year. Leaky Black has impressed me some in very limited time, and I guess he, Harris (know nothing about him) and some dude who was the star on a bad team that was run off the court against every decent foe they faced could rise to make this a strong supporting cast.

Maybe Roy is the new master, or maybe this is the rare great team with one star and a bunch of role players who fit perfectly. Historically, Roy's teams advance to the EE/FF when they have 4-8 highly ranked players who have been in the program for 2-3 years. Next year could totally break the mold, but I'd bet it won't.

 

[rome8180]

I certainly don't have them as a title contender. I have them as similar to 2018.

Bacot will be good for them because he's a highly ranked big man and even bad big men are good for Roy. Anthony, like I said, is the best guard to enter the ACC since Kyrie. Brooks is good. Therefore, Roy has his PG and his frontcourt. Those are by far the things he needs the most to field a good team. Wings almost don't matter since they don't have coherent role in his offense. Sometimes, like Johnson or Jackson, they're good enough that they eventually figure out something useful to do. I think Robinson, Black, and whatever transfers they get will hold down the fort there.

It feels like every year I hear this argument. And every year it turns out not to pan out. Roy is really good with player development and team construction, sadly.

 

[Bullettoothtony]

^ Exactly. They'll be very good. As they usually are.

 

[deeyoukayeee]

If by 2018 you mean 11 losses and a round of 32 exit, I agree that is reasonable. And the definition of mediocrity for Duke/UNC/KU/UK. Where I think they will be for several years. But I would have felt that with or without Harris/Keeling, which is why I think those guys are incremental/irrelevant and only Blackshear or Tucker matter.

 

[rome8180]

My prediction would be 2 seed, 7-8 losses, Sweet Sixteen exit, split with Duke. So somewhere in between 2018 and last year.

Coincidentally, that would also be my prediction for Duke.

 

[childress22]

Remember when the high-flying duals between 7th and Dukie Daenarys Smith Jr. were going to be legend?

Duels? The Father of Dragons was no match for that Woods/Jalek Felton backcourt.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Even ardent UNC haters must feel sympathy for them here, as their squeaky clean program fell victim to this dirtiness. Can the NCAA retroactively award UNC the 2018 national title?

 

[dukeboy911]

I'm not sure if the Seventh Woods transfer is addition by subtraction at this point.

 

[deepdarkblue]

 

[Slap the Floor]

I'm not sure if the Seventh Woods transfer is addition by subtraction at this point.

It is addition by subtraction. He stinks. He averages 2ppg on his 3 year career, he doesn't shoot well- 64% FT, and he was 40% this year but he only took 10 threes. His freshman year he was 2-11 and his sophomore year he was 0-4. Incredibly, his 2nd highest point total in ACC play was against Duke, with a whopping 5 points.

He's not good and will just make it easier for Roy to play Cole Anthony as many minutes as possible.

 

[Slap the Floor]

The only redeeming aspect about Seventh Woods transferring is that now UNC can finally shut the fuck up with all of the monumental horseshit they spew in trying to compare why UNC is better than Duke. In recent years since Coach K is just giving Roy swirlies on the recruiting trail, UNC fans have adopted this incredible narrative of how UNC is a more wholesome program than Duke, and essentially wins with more honor/respect than Duke does.

They cite things such as: "We don't recruit one and dones, Roy purposely avoids them and targets players who will be at UNC for 3-4 years. Roy builds a program the right way!" and then you have "Look at all of the one and dones, and transfers at Duke. So many kids leave the program they don't actually enjoy being at Duke or playing for Coach K like they do at UNC under Roy. Coach K will just recruit over everybody with one and dones" etc etc.

It's all horseshit that we all know is untrue- Roy has been recruiting one and dones for years but just hasn't gotten any. It's so sweet to see them have Coby White and Nassir Little declare for the NBA like 2-3 days after their Sweet Sixteen loss (this was pretty quick to declare, especially since the Duke guys took a week, or a little longer, following the MSU loss) and then have Seventh Woods transfer because he was recruited over.

I don't think anything pisses me off more than in college basketball than the 'holier than thou' crap UNC fans have put on the last 5 or so years. It's just completely ridiculous, especially considering how they just blatantly ignore the whole system they had to keep athletes eligible.

 

[rome8180]

I doubt one transfer is going to make them back off that narrative.

Like it or not, UNC has had very few transfers for a high major program who recruits as well as they do.

 

[Bullettoothtony]

Keeling to the Cheats.

What a week for them. They're gonna be good.

 

[Slap the Floor]

Keeling to the Cheats.

What a week for them. They're gonna be good.

They're a top 5 team, IMO.

edit: That doesn't really have much to do with Keeling, I just think Cole Anthony is that good, and the combination of Brooks/Bacot will score a lot down low in Roy's system. They will have enough 3pt shooting with Robinson, Keeling and Platek (lol).

 

[rome8180]

TIL that Christian Keeling is not white. Who are some other guys with white names who aren't white?

Chase Jeter is one.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

I'm usually one of the more nervous ones re: UNC, but I feel like I lean closer to deeyoukayee here, although in looking at the top 25, it's very soft beyond 8 or so, and the idea of UNC sneaking into the top 10 seems realistic. But basically, they now have the same roster we were all projecting them to have a few weeks ago, though I'd argue it's somewhat worse as I think Tucker seems to be a better player than Keeling by all relevant metrics.

I've probably said this a few times, but unlike the last few years, they lack minutes continuity, which I think is a key element for a Roy team. Their performance from 2016-2019 was undoubtedly impressive and is a fair reason to think their floor is relatively high, but they really haven't had a mass exodus like this since 2012. And the 2013 team had pretty good talent/experience returning: Jr Reggie Bullock, So PJ Hairston, So James McAdoo and Sr Dexter Strickland was a way better returning core than what they have this year.

Also, Keeling had a 111 ORating this year playing a Big South schedule, with a 100 rating against top 100 opponents. His total rating in 2018 was only 102. He was 40% 3 this year but 31% last year. I'm not really convinced he's even an upgrade over Brandon Robinson (127 O Rating, 23/50 3pt, albeit in low minutes/usage), who was a top 75 recruit himself and has three years in Roy's system.

If they somehow add Blackshear or get back involved with Tucker or someone else of that quality, I'll worry. As of now, I think they're 3-seed quality or so, but anything between a 2-5 seed would be within my range of likely outcomes. I think the three seniors they had are going to very tough to replace, especially Johnson, who I feel got a ton of credit this year but was still underrated.

 

[deeyoukayeee]

Keeling to the Cheats.

What a week for them. They're gonna be good.

They're a top 5 team, IMO.

edit: That doesn't really have much to do with Keeling, I just think Cole Anthony is that good, and the combination of Brooks/Bacot will score a lot down low in Roy's system. They will have enough 3pt shooting with Robinson, Keeling and Platek (lol).

This is the kind of post I was referencing at the top of the page. Without Cole Anthony, UNC is a marginal NCAA team. Squarely NIT in any normal year. Unless he is Zion/AD/Durant, his addition doesn't remotely make them that much better. And he isn't. You massively overrate Bacot/Brooks.

 

[DukeNukem05]

I'm usually one of the more nervous ones re: UNC, but I feel like I lean closer to deeyoukayee here, although in looking at the top 25, it's very soft beyond 8 or so, and the idea of UNC sneaking into the top 10 seems realistic. But basically, they now have the same roster we were all projecting them to have a few weeks ago, though I'd argue it's somewhat worse as I think Tucker seems to be a better player than Keeling by all relevant metrics.

I've probably said this a few times, but unlike the last few years, they lack minutes continuity, which I think is a key element for a Roy team. Their performance from 2016-2019 was undoubtedly impressive and is a fair reason to think their floor is relatively high, but they really haven't had a mass exodus like this since 2012. And the 2013 team had pretty good talent/experience returning: Jr Reggie Bullock, So PJ Hairston, So James McAdoo and Sr Dexter Strickland was a way better returning core than what they have this year.

Also, Keeling had a 111 ORating this year playing a Big South schedule, with a 100 rating against top 100 opponents. His total rating in 2018 was only 102. He was 40% 3 this year but 31% last year. I'm not really convinced he's even an upgrade over Brandon Robinson (127 O Rating, 23/50 3pt, albeit in low minutes/usage), who was a top 75 recruit himself and has three years in Roy's system.

If they somehow add Blackshear or get back involved with Tucker or someone else of that quality, I'll worry. As of now, I think they're 3-seed quality or so, but anything between a 2-5 seed would be within my range of likely outcomes. I think the three seniors they had are going to very tough to replace, especially Johnson, who I feel got a ton of credit this year but was still underrated.

tl;dr, slap.

 

[aiw]

StopTheLongPostsPatrickYates