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Game Thread [2023-24] Houston (NCAA S16)

What's your prediction?

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
The toughest matchup for Houston is the team that draws a lot of fouls and takes and makes a lot of threes. Those things are negatively correlated but they give up a lot of 3pt attempts and they foul a lot. Too bad Duke used up it’s best shooting game of the year.
 
StopThePumpFakesShav said:
rome8180 said:
Wisconsin was technically the "better" 1 seed if you want to parse it even further. We pulled off a mini upset (at least per the computers and the seeding committee).
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Fuck I am gonna have to fact check you. I don’t think this is true because Duke wore white in that game, indicating that they were the higher seed within the 1 line.
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Also, Wisconsin’s region was on the same side as Kentucky, so they were the 4th 1 to UK’s 1 overall.
 
Damn, I could have sworn that was true. Didn't even consider for one second that I might get fact-checked on that one.
 
I also have never thought for a second in my life about the "wearing white" on a neutral court thing. I guess it had to be decided somehow, but I'm so uninterested in that it's like a literal blank spot in my mind.

While we're at it, I also know no one's jersey number.
 
StopThePumpFakesShav said:
The toughest matchup for Houston is the team that draws a lot of fouls and takes and makes a lot of threes. Those things are negatively correlated but they give up a lot of 3pt attempts and they foul a lot. Too bad Duke used up it’s best shooting game of the year.
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As far as great overall teams go, this isn't a bad matchup for Duke, as long as the players are coached properly on what they need to do.

Filipowski reverting back to his alpha garbage, spinning wildly against this defense, putting up shots in the paint to get blocked over and over again - this will be comical and probably destroy his own draft stock. There's no incentive for Duke or him to try to embarrass themselves like this. Even Filipowski drawing fouls isn't going to be ideal - Duke would be much better off with the guards drawing fouls on drives rather than him going to the line to make his usual 67%. Houston is a terrible defensive rebounding team. Take advantage of that with Filipowski and Mitchell not even looking for their own shots in this game. Cut for open dunks and focus on rebounding. Either of them trying to dribble against this defense is toxic.

The best Duke offense against Houston's defense would look a lot like 2010 Duke. Zoubek and Thomas setting picks, sometimes rolling, sometimes popping from midrange (in Thomas's case), and mostly waiting for Scheyer, Singler and the disgraced Nolan Smith to create offense while the two bigs look to rebound and pass it back out.

The big question is whether someone will inform Duke's head coach that the 2010 Duke offense can be effective. Scheyer will likely need to watch film of the 2010 season to understand how the offense worked, and I'm not sure he's capable of learning that offense in just a few days.
 
I think the main problem is that vs Houston’s D, you need guys who can dribble through contact and create something. Roach is the only Duke player who can do this vs Houston IMO, and I would probably tell Proctor to shoot a 28-footer before he even tried to penetrate.
 
Even before last night, Houston was one of the worst teams at defensive FT rate. And although we're pretty average at getting to the line, we'll probably need about 20 FT attempts to feel good about a win, because Houston just don't give up many shots from the field. Flip and Mitchell grabbing those offensive rebounds and getting fouled down low will be key.

Also a phenomenal turnover team. Since I'm not expecting our guys to force the issue on D, we absolutely have to take care of the ball or Shead and Cryer are going to have a field day. Have a bad feeling those two will scorch us.
 
This matchup with Houston feels a lot like the 2022 matchup with Texas Tech. Going up against an elite defense from the Big 12 with guys that all look like football linebackers. The 2022 team had the best front court in the country, though, and was physically comparable to TTU. This team has much better shooting and has a higher ceiling for offensive play, and a higher floor for defense.
 
StopThePumpFakesShav said:
The toughest matchup for Houston is the team that draws a lot of fouls and takes and makes a lot of threes. Those things are negatively correlated but they give up a lot of 3pt attempts and they foul a lot. Too bad Duke used up it’s best shooting game of the year.
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its*

This has been a retaliatory grammar-check brought to you by rome.
 
There is just a different vibe in cruising to the second weekend, no matter how it ends there. Finishing top 10 Kenpom and just running into the overall second best team in the S16 is gonna be viewed as a solid second season for Scheyer.

We lucked out in R2 with the matchup. But the reason why we have to play Houston now versus Sunday or even in the F4 is a result of our own failures, with dumb losses early and finishing the way we did coming into this tourney.

A 27 AdjEff rating is nice though and pretty in line with preseason expectations. The weakness of Scheyer seems to be simply getting these guys ready to run through a wall in the way K could. Not coming out ready has cost us. Arizona is now the only team we have even played that’s better than us in KP and it’s by a hair.
 
StopThePumpFakesShav said:
There is just a different vibe in cruising to the second weekend, no matter how it ends there. Finishing top 10 Kenpom and just running into the overall second best team in the S16 is gonna be viewed as a solid second season for Scheyer.

We lucked out in R2 with the matchup. But the reason why we have to play Houston now versus Sunday or even in the F4 is a result of our own failures, with dumb losses early and finishing the way we did coming into this tourney.

A 27 AdjEff rating is nice though and pretty in line with preseason expectations. The weakness of Scheyer seems to be simply getting these guys ready to run through a wall in the way K could. Not coming out ready has cost us. Arizona is now the only team we have even played that’s better than us in KP and it’s by a hair.
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Fuck I see the same discussion being had in another thread. My assessment is he’s done a good, not great job. But given his age and intelligence I don’t think he’s a plateau risk.
 
physicsfactor said:
I think the main problem is that vs Houston’s D, you need guys who can dribble through contact and create something. Roach is the only Duke player who can do this vs Houston IMO, and I would probably tell Proctor to shoot a 28-footer before he even tried to penetrate.
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Yep, I think we need Roach go to full 2022 Roach and just eviscerate the best defense in the country. He's fully capable of it when he's got his A+ pick-and-roll game going.

I think Proctor is going to struggle mightily in this one. Houston will have scouted our pet inbounds play better, so he won't even get those corner threes. I think McCain may still do all right because he's more physical than Proctor, but he's not going to get a ton of open looks like JMU gave him.
 
Didn't realize how short Houston is. Backcourt of two 6'1" guys, and their two tallest guys are 6'7 and 6'8". We have to own the glass and get as many second chance opportunities as possible.

Houston is surprisingly elite, however, at offensive rebounding given their lack of height. I'm assuming Sampson just has them crash the boards on offense while opting to get out in transition while on defense (which would explain their horrendous defensive rebounding rate).
 
rome8180 said:
physicsfactor said:
I think the main problem is that vs Houston’s D, you need guys who can dribble through contact and create something. Roach is the only Duke player who can do this vs Houston IMO, and I would probably tell Proctor to shoot a 28-footer before he even tried to penetrate.
Click to expand...
Yep, I think we need Roach go to full 2022 Roach and just eviscerate the best defense in the country. He's fully capable of it when he's got his A+ pick-and-roll game going.

I think Proctor is going to struggle mightily in this one. Houston will have scouted our pet inbounds play better, so he won't even get those corner threes. I think McCain may still do all right because he's more physical than Proctor, but he's not going to get a ton of open looks like JMU gave him.
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Had the same thought - keeping it close with shooting + transcendent tournament Roach showing up in the final 10 feels like our only real hope.

This is part of why I'd blow a huge amount of NIL on him next year, regardless of his recent struggles. That veteran ability to elevate level of play in the most important moments and will a team to wins is such a crucial March ingredient.
 
Fun fact: The last (and only) time we beat a team 3 seed lines higher was in 1980. #4 Duke edged #1 Kentucky by a point. The biggest differential under K was 2 lines, when #3 Duke downed #1 UConn on the first Laettner buzzer beater in 1990. K was… 0-2 against teams 3 lines or higher, really tells you how uncommon it was for him to be a low seed in the tournament.

This would be such a massive win.
 
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