Game Thread [2023-24] Houston (NCAA S16)

[rome8180]

A press like that would be pretty rad for our non-Maluach lineups next year. Flagg and Stewart, plus a bunch of wings.

I really loved the sideline trap we'd do with Zion and Tre Jones in 2019. I'm wondering if there's a way we could replicate that with Flagg. As a defensive "playmaker" he's even more threatening than Zion was. We likely won't have a defensive guard like Tre though.

 

[rome8180]

I just wonder how effective those blitzes can be against good offenses with the personnel to capitalize after beating the blitz…shooters, slashers and bigs who can rebound. In today’s CBB that’s what, a handful of teams?

I think we're one of them.

And unc of course.

The issue is actually passing out of the blitz. You have two 6'6" athletes running at you and forming a wall. And then when you do try to throw it over the top, they jump with their arms straight up in the air and spike the ball back like a volleyball.

It is for this reason I am a devout advocate of full court pressing more often. A well executed 1-2-1-1 press forces ball handlers into the corners against your wings in this exact scenario. You need an agile center to play safety in the press, and the guards have to be fast enough to retreat when it's right. But it would be a nightmare to play against.

The other issue is you need to play depth. If you press, the players are going to tire out more easily. And they're also more likely to get in foul trouble.

Houston doesn't play much depth, which makes what they do all the more impressive. But they don't press. The blitz starts around 30 feet from the basket, usually. Also, they offset the energy expended by playing at an absurdly slow offensive pace. #346 adjusted, according to Kenpom.

 

[Devilsforlife]

Houston runs a better system than UVA with higher caliber athletes (at least since 2019). But there are plenty of similarities given how slow and physical they play.

 

[rome8180]

Houston runs a better system than UVA with higher caliber athletes (at least since 2019). But there are plenty of similarities given how slow and physical they play.

Brian Geisinger described them as having "a lot of UVA's principles combined with FSU's aggressiveness."

 

[CK86]

Aside from it being the 2nd weekend of the tournament, I'm excited for this one because it's an early tenure matchup of Scheyer vs a successful, veteran coach. I'm fully expecting Houston to win as they've been better and more consistent all season.

Think it comes down to the three things that have been an issue in all the losses - defensive rebounding, limiting live ball turnovers that result in transition points the other way and getting back on defense. I think Duke can win this game but they've got to play their best game of the season. It can't be like UNC where they spot the opponent 15-20 easy points with minimal defensive resistance.

I know it sounds silly, but I also think Flip's body language will be a key indicator early on whether Duke has a chance or not. If he's pouting because shots aren't going in, it could be a long night. That's when his defense falls apart, which leads to forcing isos into traffic which leads to easy baskets the other way. Suddenly a 2-4 pt game spirals into 8-10 point deficit and now you're having to crawl back against a great defensive team.

 

[rome8180]

Aside from it being the 2nd weekend of the tournament, I'm excited for this one because it's an early tenure matchup of Scheyer vs a successful, veteran coach. I'm fully expecting Houston to win as they've been better and more consistent all season.

Think it comes down to the three things that have been an issue in all the losses - defensive rebounding, limiting live ball turnovers that result in transition points the other way and getting back on defense. I think Duke can win this game but they've got to play their best game of the season. It can't be like UNC where they spot the opponent 15-20 easy points with minimal defensive resistance.

I know it sounds silly, but I also think Flip's body language will be a key indicator early on whether Duke has a chance or not. If he's pouting because shots aren't going in, it could be a long night. That's when his defense falls apart, which leads to forcing isos into traffic which leads to easy baskets the other way. Suddenly a 2-4 pt game spirals into 8-10 point deficit and now you're having to crawl back against a great defensive team.

One interesting thing is that Houston forces a lot of turnovers but still plays at one of the slowest paces in D1 (346th overall). I'm not sure quite how the math works out on that one. I guess either 1) they don't push off their forced turnovers; or 2) they force the turnovers very late in the opponents' shot clock?

It could also be that their offensive rebounding slows the game's pace down. But their average possession length is very slow on both ends.

Anyway, looking at this, it seems like the danger of the live ball turnovers is not so much they'll kill us in transition, it's more that they'll get way more shots than we do (especially when you add in the offensive rebounding). Hopefully we can even that out by: 1) shooting better than they do; 2) drawing more fouls; 3) getting some offensive rebounds. Houston fouls a lot and isn't amazing on the defensive glass.

 

[dukeboy911]

Limiting live ball turnovers is the biggest issue imo. Those can be very demoralizing for young guards, and their senior backcourt is really good at forcing them.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke is 1-5 as an underdog during these two Scheyer seasons, with an average underperformance of -2.9 points against the spread. Time to turn this around.

 

[dukeboy911]

not expecting it, but man would a win exercise a lot of demons tomorrow....

 

[physicsfactor]

not expecting it, but man would a win exercise a lot of demons tomorrow....

I don’t know. I prefer demons to be small and wimpy, not buff.

 

[dukeboy911]

i'm leaving it up @physics

 

[LastHearth]

3 keys to the game, turnovers, rebounding on both ends, and making open 3s. Would help also if the refs call the fouls.

 

[dukebluedevils05]

Two keys to me are: a.) refs calling the obvious fouls on Houston. They’re gonna muck it up and be extremely physical when we try to get by their first line of defense. Scheyer needs to be ready to get in the refs ears. And b.) the turnovers, mostly live-ball ones.

 

[Devilsforlife]

Here is a fucking insane stat. The last time Duke and UNC lost in the same round of the NCAAT? 1979. Never happened once in the K era.

 

[physicsfactor]

Here is a fucking insane stat. The last time Duke and UNC lost in the same round of the NCAAT? 1979. Never happened once in the K era.

What’s sad is I immediately factchecked this in my head back to 1987 before I wasn’t sure

 

[physicsfactor]

Klonopin or THC for this one tonight?

 

[Topher]

Klonopin or THC for this one tonight?

I'm going double edibles. Edoubles?

 

[dukeboy911]

Klonopin. Obviously.

 

[deepdarkblue]

Probably smoke a joint and then hit the edibles when the munchies hit.

 

[physicsfactor]

Such a weird occurrence to see Duke as a 3+ seed ‘dog. It’s happened twice in my lifetime, and I don’t remember the 87 loss. 96, 07, and 23 didn’t advance far enough.