Aside from it being the 2nd weekend of the tournament, I'm excited for this one because it's an early tenure matchup of Scheyer vs a successful, veteran coach. I'm fully expecting Houston to win as they've been better and more consistent all season.
Think it comes down to the three things that have been an issue in all the losses - defensive rebounding, limiting live ball turnovers that result in transition points the other way and getting back on defense. I think Duke can win this game but they've got to play their best game of the season. It can't be like UNC where they spot the opponent 15-20 easy points with minimal defensive resistance.
I know it sounds silly, but I also think Flip's body language will be a key indicator early on whether Duke has a chance or not. If he's pouting because shots aren't going in, it could be a long night. That's when his defense falls apart, which leads to forcing isos into traffic which leads to easy baskets the other way. Suddenly a 2-4 pt game spirals into 8-10 point deficit and now you're having to crawl back against a great defensive team.