Game Thread [2023-24] Houston (NCAA S16)

[TS9]

Just like Izzo finally getting one against us again in 2019, the law of averages says this trend of Duke losing to higher-seeded teams has to end soon. Who knows if that’ll be Friday, but I do kinda think Houston might be a bit ripe for the picking. Feels a bit like they are hanging on for dear life lately.

 

[rome8180]

 

[rome8180]

I think Flip's gotta flash to the middle the second they blitz the ball screen. He's a big target and he'll be open. He can get rolling downhill if he can catch the ball, and then he'll have a few options. In most of these clips, the opposing team didn't have a 7-footer to park in the middle. It's all about successfully making that initial pass out of the blitz.

 

[childress22]

I think Flip's gotta flash to the middle the second they blitz the ball screen. He's a big target and he'll be open. He can get rolling downhill if he can catch the ball, and then he'll have a few options. In most of these clips, the opposing team didn't have a 7-footer to park in the middle. It's all about successfully making that initial pass out of the blitz.

Building on this, I think one way to make this work is to actually have him come up pretty high, like foul-line height, assuming our ball-handlers get knocked pretty far back by the blitz.

If Flip catches the ball high and draws a third defender out there, it spreads Houston's non-blitzers out, gives our cutters room to operate, and makes it harder for Houston's help. Especially if one of those other guys in McCain in the corner, and Houston has to decide if they dare to help off him or not.

 

[dukebluedevils05]

Speaking of Houston’s aggressiveness defending against the ball screen reminded me of this video Jordan Sperber shared recently.

 

[dukeboy911]

Shead's avg 2.2 steals/game this season, I'm hammering the over for our matchup.

 

[rome8180]

Here's a good breakdown of their game against Texas A&M. I don't know if it's because of foul trouble, but Houston is not blitzing nearly as much in this game. To be fair, Texas A&M isn't setting a ton of screens on the ball.

 

[rome8180]

It runs counter to what we do, but I wonder if we should just run less pick and roll to avoid the trapping.

A&M also got some nice stuff in transition despite being an even slower paced team that we are.

 

[krsmith16]

I just wonder how effective those blitzes can be against good offenses with the personnel to capitalize after beating the blitz…shooters, slashers and bigs who can rebound. In today’s CBB that’s what, a handful of teams?

I think we're one of them.

And unc of course.

 

[rome8180]

I just wonder how effective those blitzes can be against good offenses with the personnel to capitalize after beating the blitz…shooters, slashers and bigs who can rebound. In today’s CBB that’s what, a handful of teams?

I think we're one of them.

And unc of course.

The issue is actually passing out of the blitz. You have two 6'6" athletes running at you and forming a wall. And then when you do try to throw it over the top, they jump with their arms straight up in the air and spike the ball back like a volleyball.

 

[rome8180]

I'm looking at the best offenses they've faced:

Dayton - #23 offense - beat them 69-55
Texas A&M - #26 offense - beat them 70-66 and 100-95 (in OT)
Texas Tech - #27 offense - beat them 77-54 and 82-59
BYU - #13 offense - beat them 75-68
Texas - #30 offense - beat them 76-72 (in OT)
Baylor - #6 offense - beat them 80-76 (in OT)

There may be more I missed. I was just sticking to top 30 offenses. It actually looks like they've struggled more with elite defenses, although Baylor, A&M, and Texas all played them well. I guess you don't want to get them in an overtime game.

 

[rome8180]

Terrible fucking alumni basketball week so far.

 

[bfactor]

I'm just coping at this point, but Tatum and Zion tomorrow can vault us into an up cycle.

 

[rome8180]

Boston blows a 30-point lead to Atlanta
New Orleans gets down 20 to OKC and then falls just short of a comeback
Orlando has one of their worst losses of the season and probably fucked themselves in the standings
Golden State hanging onto the play-in after somehow beating Orlando, on the road, with no Draymond

Leading to:

Duke gets decimated 67-41 by Houston; Filipowski cries and it's published front page of the New York Times
UNC destroys Alabama; Alabama shoots 3-30 due to UNC's magical 3pt defense; Harrison Ingram hits 8 threes and announces his intentions to return to UNC no matter what

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Arizona and UConn will also lose

 

[Topher]

I just wonder how effective those blitzes can be against good offenses with the personnel to capitalize after beating the blitz…shooters, slashers and bigs who can rebound. In today’s CBB that’s what, a handful of teams?

I think we're one of them.

And unc of course.

The issue is actually passing out of the blitz. You have two 6'6" athletes running at you and forming a wall. And then when you do try to throw it over the top, they jump with their arms straight up in the air and spike the ball back like a volleyball.

It is for this reason I am a devout advocate of full court pressing more often. A well executed 1-2-1-1 press forces ball handlers into the corners against your wings in this exact scenario. You need an agile center to play safety in the press, and the guards have to be fast enough to retreat when it's right. But it would be a nightmare to play against.

 

[childress22]

A press like that would be pretty rad for our non-Maluach lineups next year. Flagg and Stewart, plus a bunch of wings.

 

[Inveigle]

We can end up beating Houston, then... lose to NC State, but Carolina wins the title. That shit could actually happen.

 

[deepdarkblue]

So you're saying this will be one of those teaching losses?

 

[Slap the Floor]

besides us winning the National Championship, the most satisfying conclusion would be NC State defeating UNC in the finals, with Burns dominating Bacot.