Welcome!

By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

SignUp Now!

Bracketology

That would give us this projected bracket if Duke beats Miami next week and all the best teams win their conference tournaments:

Indianapolis
1 Indiana
2 Arizona

Washington DC
1 Duke
2 Michigan

Arlington
1 Florida
2 Miami

Los Angeles
1 Gonzaga
2 Kansas

That seems fair. The overall #1 team deserves to get the Arizona gift (by far the weakest 2 seed). Yes, just like Duke was fortunate to draw Arizona instead of Texas in the 2011 Sweet Sixteen. I do think the committee could put Duke over Indiana if Kelly shows he's still great when he comes back, plus my projection of 2-2 to finish the season is conservative; Duke could go 3-1 instead, but I wouldn't expect 4-0. The rest of the 2-seeds are legit with very little difference between them. Miami is the weakest on Kenpom, but they haven't been healthy until a couple of weeks ago.

Of course, a 1 vs 2 matchup in the Elite Eight has less than a 20% chance of happening, so all of this is really a waste of time.
 
Not worried about Mich because it would mean we had made the Elite Eight, which would make me happy. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if they lose before then.
 
Miami has already been bumped off the 1 seed line by Lunardi, replaced by Georgetown
 
Man, I am in a back and forth with some idiot on twitter that thinks that Goodman and I are lying that tourney games are neutral court games.
 
Updated projections, and there are so few games left that it makes sense to assign specific projected wins and losses now.

#1 Indiana (2-1 remaining, 26-5 final, #7 RPI, #18 SOS, narrative: best team in the best conference)
vs Iowa - W
vs Ohio State - W
at Michigan - L

#2 Gonzaga (29-2, #9 RPI, #71 SOS, narrative: the other teams probably wouldn't have done better than 2 losses with this schedule)

#3 Kansas (2-0 remaining, 27-4 final, #4 RPI, #13 SOS, narrative: good team, good numbers, good schedule)
vs Texas Tech - W
at Baylor - W

#4 Duke (2-0 remaining, 27-4 final, #1 RPI, #1 SOS, narrative: didn't win their conference, but Kelly back for tournament)
vs Virginia Tech - W
at North Carolina - W

#5 Georgetown (2-0 remaining, 25-4 final, #10 RPI, #33 SOS, narrative: probable champions of the 2nd best conference)
at Villanova - W
vs Syracuse - W

#6 Miami (2-0 remaining, 25-5 final, #3 RPI, #4 SOS, narrative: by far the best win of their season might not have happened if Kelly were healthy)
vs Georgia Tech - W
vs Clemson - W

#7 Florida (2-0 remaining, 25-5 final, #6 RPI, #23 SOS, narrative: lacking quality wins despite blowing out everyone)
vs Vanderbilt - W
at Kentucky - W

#8 Louisville (2-0 remaining, 26-5 final, #5 RPI, #12 SOS, narrative: probably won't win their conference)
vs Cincinnati - W
vs Notre Dame - W

#9 New Mexico (2-0 remaining, 27-4 final, #2 RPI, #3 SOS, narrative: this season's embodiment of the RPI's flaws)
at Nevada - W
at Air Force - W

#10 Michigan (3-0 remaining, 26-5 final, #11 RPI, #44 SOS, narrative: scheduled cupcakes)
vs Michigan State - W
at Purdue - W
vs Indiana - W

#11 Michigan State (2-1 remaining, 24-7 final, #7 RPI, #5 SOS, narrative: basically the same as Kansas but in a much tougher conference)
at Michigan - L
vs Wisconsin - W
vs Northwestern - W

#12 Arizona (1-0 remaining, 24-6 final, #13 RPI, #28 SOS, narrative: impressive record, beat Florida, nothing else)
vs Arizona State - W
 
That would place Florida as Duke's 2-seed in DC, since Georgetown can't be placed in DC (hosting) and Miami can't be Duke's 2-seed. I don't think Duke can avoid Florida if Duke gets a 1 seed. That would also place Arizona as Duke's 3-seed, which would essentially be a walkover for Florida and make it very likely that Duke would have to play the best team in the country just to get to the Final Four.
 
Does anyone disagree with this analysis?

1. Duke wins out: Obvious #1 seed, strong chance at overall #1 though there will always be some yokel arguing for Gonzaga.

2. Duke loses to UNC, wins ACC tournament: Probably a #1 seed, though I suppose winning an upset-filled tournament would be different from beating two of Miami-UVa-UNC-State. The "no road wins" argument, however meaningless it may be, will be a big talking point.

3. Duke beats UNC, loses in ACC tournament: Chance at a #1 seed, but I think it would depend on where and how the loss came, and how teams like Kansas and Louisville do. I'd say less than 50/50. Basically, I think the ACC tourney is more important than next Saturday.

4. Duke loses to UNC, loses in ACC tournament: #2 seed. That's six losses, 2 with Kelly, no conference title of any sort. That seems #2ish to me.
 
Every team is so close together that yes, the conference tournaments will be a big deal, and there will be some random upsets no doubt. So trying to project this thing pre-tournaments was more meaningless than usual. Duke must win the ACCT to get a 1, IMO. Hard to keep a Big East champ of some sort below a non-ACC champ of any sort, even with the Kelly storyline. Kansas losing in their tournament would help. Gonzaga won't lose in theirs.
 
I was at the bar tonight and saw on ESPN that Lundardi doesn't have Duke as a #1 seed anymore. He has IU, Gonzaga, Kansas and GTown. WTF?
 
Yeah, he's just wrong. Committee will respect our resume. As of today we're a solid #1.

And Klahn, I agree 100% with that. It's also worth taking into account that other teams are going to lose. Everyone except Gonzaga has four losses or more. We have the #1 RPI and SOS.
 
Here are this season's projected egregiously overseeded and underseeded teams, with the key premises being that Kenpom is a good predictor of future results and Lunardi's bracket is somewhat accurate about how the selection committee will seed the teams:

Egregiously Overseeded (we want these teams in Duke's region)
1 Georgetown (#16)
3 New Mexico (#25)
3 Kansas State (#31)
5 Notre Dame (#43)
6 Butler (#60)
7 UCLA (#45)
12 Temple (#76)

Egregiously Underseeded (we do not want these teams in Duke's region)
3 Florida (#1)
4 Wisconsin (#8)
6 Pittsburgh (#5)
9 St. Mary's (#19)
10 Minnesota (#14)
10 Virginia (#18)
11 Creighton (#20)
12 Middle Tennessee (#27)

The most egregious underseeds in the entire bracket IMO will be Minnesota at 10 even though they are as good as a typical 4 and Pittsburgh at 6 even though they are as good as a typical 2. On the other end, Butler is as good as a typical 12 or 13 but will be a 6. But Stevens, like Izzo, tells his team to play much better just for the NCAA Tournament.
 
Put it this way: If Duke gets a bracket like

Arlington, TX
1 Georgetown
2 Duke
3 New Mexico
4 Kansas State
5 Notre Dame
6 Butler
7 UCLA

I'd take that over

Washington, DC
1 Duke
2 Louisville
3 Florida
4 Wisconsin
5 Pittsburgh
6 anyone
7 anyone
8 St. Mary's
9 Minnesota
10 Virginia
11 Creighton

Georgetown would be an underdog to each of the top 5 seeds in the region of death. 9/10-seed Minnesota would be favored over the 1-seed Georgetown in the region of nonsense. When a 10-seed is a Vegas favorite over a 1-seed, people need to start thinking of better ways to decide these things.
 
So we're safe for a one seed right? Arizona can't somehow pass us can they? #lunardi
 
A win on Sat would lock it up, imo. If we lose, we might have to win the ACC tourney.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Chat users

  • No one is chatting at the moment.

Chat rooms

  • General chit-chat 0

Forum statistics

Threads
1,065
Messages
423,973
Members
624
Latest member
Bluegrass Blue Devil
Back
Top Bottom