Bracketology

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Actually Duke might simply be screwed because of the Miami/Georgetown impossibility in DC. Michigan probably falls to a 3 with 2 more losses. So Florida and Louisville would be the candidates to be in Duke's region. Just hope only one of them is.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

#257 Liberty is in the Tournament. That's the 16 we want.

ESPN will hype that game up as a potential 16 over 1 upset though.

 

[rome8180]

Actually Duke might simply be screwed because of the Miami/Georgetown impossibility in DC. Michigan probably falls to a 3 with 2 more losses. So Florida and Louisville would be the candidates to be in Duke's region. Just hope only one of them is.

Fortunately, if they are both in our region, they have to play each other before they get to us. So we'll only have to play one of the either way. I guess you could argue that this greatly increases our chance for a tough Elite Eight game, but I think the chances of either being upset are pretty low anyway since they'll both be underseeded.

 

[Thain]

#257 Liberty is in the Tournament. That's the 16 we want.

ESPN will hype that game up as a potential 16 over 1 upset though.

Old team vs. Seth Curry

 

[Thain]

Stealing from NCCU's TDD posts, we definitely want IU to beat Michigan today.

IU does not seem to want to do that.

 

[aiw]

#257 Liberty is in the Tournament. That's the 16 we want.

ESPN will hype that game up as a potential 16 over 1 upset though.

Old team vs. Seth Curry

Already penned in.

 

[Thain]

LOL fuck Gottlieb. Doesn't think we should be #1 unless we win the ACCT.

 

[aiw]

He said overall number 1.

 

[Thain]

He said overall number 1.

Ahhh I missed that. I came to only to hear him say 1 seed. Well still fuck him just because. Although I enjoy his radio show.

 

[KevinStrickland]

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

yes please

I'd be just fine not having to deal with VCU. eekers.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Lunardi will do this better in his own bracket now that the regular season is done, but this is how I think the selection committee will see it (Kenpom rankings listed but probably not given much weight):

#1 Indiana (26-5, #8 RPI, 1st Big Ten, #2 Kenpom)

#2 Duke (27-4, #1 RPI, 2nd ACC, Ryan Kelly Exception, #5 Kenpom)

#3 Gonzaga (29-2, #10 RPI, 1st WCC, #4 Kenpom)

#4 Louisville (26-5, #3 RPI, 1st Big East, #3 Kenpom)

#5 Kansas (26-5, #7 RPI, 1st Big 12, #9 Kenpom)

#6 Georgetown (24-5, #9 RPI, 1st Big East, #13 Kenpom)

#7 Miami (24-6, #4 RPI, 1st ACC, #14 Kenpom)

#8 Florida (24-6, #6 RPI, 1st SEC, #1 Kenpom)

#9 New Mexico (26-5, #2 RPI, 1st Mountain West, #26 Kenpom)

#10 Michigan State (23-7, #5 RPI, 2nd Big Ten, #7 Kenpom)

#11 Marquette (23-7 final, #11 RPI, 1st Big East, #25 Kenpom)

#12 Michigan (24-6, #13 RPI, 4th Big Ten, #11 Kenpom)

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

1-3 is set unless something disastrous happens (e.g., injuries to key players while getting blown out in the 1st round of their conference tournaments), but every team from 4-12 is still alive for the final 1-seed, IMO. For example, if Michigan wins the Big Ten Tournament while none of the teams ahead of them win theirs, Michigan would get a 1-seed, as unlikely as that would be. I suppose even some unlisted teams could still get that final 1-seed, like Arizona if they win the Pac 12 Tournament or Ohio State if they win the Big Ten Tournament, while everyone else loses, but that's getting too unrealistic to consider.

Hope Louisville wins the Big East Tournament, so they get that final 1 seed. Hope Kansas and Miami fail so Florida becomes Louisville's 2-seed, assuming Florida rolls through the SEC Tournament. That's the ideal scenario. Otherwise, Duke will get one or both of Louisville/Florida in their region. Florida losing in the SEC Tournament just creates chaos for everyone, as the #1 Kenpom team would then be a landmine randomly placed as a 3-seed somewhere. 75% chance of being good for Duke, but 25% chance of a disaster where Duke is virtually guaranteed to have a coin flip Elite Eight game if Duke even makes it that far. Ideally, based on Kenpom: 1 Duke, 2 Kansas, 3 New Mexico/Marquette. I don't think Duke can realistically get a 2-seed worse than Kansas. Michigan looks so much worse now that I look at it again; they probably can't be a 2-seed unless they make the Big Ten finals. Burke choked it all away for them.

 

[DrKlahn]

Bracket project now has Duke as a #1 on 100% of its brackets, for the first time this year I think. Lunardi and some guy on Bleacher Report were the last two holdouts.

 

[Thain]

Does Duke still get a #1 seed with the loss tonight?

 

[DrKlahn]

Does anyone disagree with this analysis?

1. Duke wins out: Obvious #1 seed, strong chance at overall #1 though there will always be some yokel arguing for Gonzaga.

2. Duke loses to UNC, wins ACC tournament: Probably a #1 seed, though I suppose winning an upset-filled tournament would be different from beating two of Miami-UVa-UNC-State. The "no road wins" argument, however meaningless it may be, will be a big talking point.

3. Duke beats UNC, loses in ACC tournament: Chance at a #1 seed, but I think it would depend on where and how the loss came, and how teams like Kansas and Louisville do. I'd say less than 50/50. Basically, I think the ACC tourney is more important than next Saturday.

4. Duke loses to UNC, loses in ACC tournament: #2 seed. That's six losses, 2 with Kelly, no conference title of any sort. That seems #2ish to me.

Now that we have full information (about Duke at least), I go back to this.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

I'd guess Miami gets one if they win the ACC. Louisville for sure if they win the Big East. Indiana I think is set already. Gonzaga should be. So probably not.

 

[rhfarmer]

I hope we don't get it for purely selfish reasons. It looks better if we flame out early as a 2 than it does if we flame out early as a 1.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

What I think happens if Louisville wins tonight and Ohio State wins tomorrow, in no order:

Washington
1 Louisville
2 Duke

Los Angeles
1 Gonzaga
2 Ohio State

Indianapolis
1 Indiana
2 Georgetown

Arlington
1 Kansas
2 Miami

 

[Rollins]

Does anyone just wish the human element of selecting seeds was taken out?

Or is it not feasible because of the proximity and travel logistics that the committee seems to incorporate.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

If Louisville loses:

Washington
1 Duke
2 Ohio State

Los Angeles
1 Gonzaga
2 Miami

Indianapolis
1 Indiana
2 Georgetown

Arlington
1 Kansas
2 Louisville