College Basketball 2017-18

[surfpenguin]

...so chaos reigns and the game is more appealing to casual fans. Brilliant by the NCAA.

This defines the NCAA's best product.

 

[Slap the Floor]

I just want Kansas as a 1 and Duke as a 2. If that requires them winning and us losing, so be it.

Any scenario in which we are a 1 and either Kansas/Xavier is our 2 or We are a 2 and either KU/Xavier is a 1 is completely acceptable to me.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

For those who did not know, the NCAA's official "Team Sheets" provide all the information the Selection Committee is considering for each team in seeding. They are available at: https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx.

Here are the team sheets for Duke and Kansas, through yesterday's games (March 8):

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

The "SOR" metric that they're using along with RPI, KPI, Kenpom, Sagarin and BPI is ESPN's metric called "Strength of Record," which is displayed on ESPN's BPI page (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi).

I don't know exactly how SOR works. ESPN says: "SOR reflects the chance a typical 25th ranked team would have team's record or better, given the schedule on a 0 to 100 scale, where 100 is best." Sounds dumb, and it's lumped in with the other metrics that ignore margin of victory (RPI and KPI).

Anyway, Duke is better than Kansas on SOR as well. That makes it 5 out of 6 topline metrics in favor of Duke (Kansas is better only on KPI). Duke is also better in Quadrant 2 record and much better in Quadrant 3 record. Duke and Kansas are equal in Quadrant 4 record.

The entire S-curve is going to be based on Quadrant 1 record, which is based on arbitrary cutoffs.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Mods, feel free to move those last two posts to the Bracketology thread.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

This is interesting, especially in that you can go back and see what the sheets looked at as of prior days.


Average ranking in the six metrics on the morning of the February bracket reveal for Xavier, Kansas, Duke:

Xavier (1 seed at the time)- 8.17
Kansas (top 2 seed)- 7.67
Duke (second 2 seed)- 7.50

Today:

Xavier- 8.33
Kansas- 8.00
Duke- 3.83

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

This feels a little like basing a baseball Cy Young vote solely on Pitcher A's higher total of Wins against teams that won 75+ games, while Pitcher B is superior in total Wins, ERA, ERA+, FIP, xFIP, K, K/9, BB, BB/9 and everything else imaginable. I just can't believe we're still at a point where that would make sense to people.

 

[DurhamSon]

More transfers from Duke, fewer from UNC.

 

[deepdarkblue]

I can see how lots of things can go wrong there.

 

[dukeboy911]

This feels a little like basing a baseball Cy Young vote solely on Pitcher A's higher total of Wins against teams that won 75+ games, while Pitcher B is superior in total Wins, ERA, ERA+, FIP, xFIP, K, K/9, BB, BB/9 and everything else imaginable. I just can't believe we're still at a point where that would make sense to people.

Agree. By those numbers, Duke should be ahead of KU right now.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Kentucky is rounding into form at the right time again. 4-point favorites today against Alabama.

Kansas opened as an underdog against West Virginia. Has moved to Kansas by 1. It's fairly likely that they will be an underdog as a 1-seed in the S16 onward.

The blue bloods are ready to make a run, including UNC of course. Should make for a miserable tournament experience for each fanbase, hoping the others lose deep into March.

 

[Slap the Floor]

Kentucky is going to the Final Four.

 

[CMon85]

Alabama is 19-14. This game proves nothing.

 

[CMon85]

This is a fucking joke. Dude sucks, literally sucks, and he's 7-7 on 3s. If he just has a career game then this is a 2-3pt game but no, he has to have the game of his life.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Chances of either they or UNC winning it all are close to 100%.

 

[rome8180]

UK is not going to the Final Four. GMAFB. They are, however, winning the SEC tournament.

 

[Slap the Floor]

Where is Houston projected? I feel like that's a tough out in the NCAA Tournament.

 

[DrKlahn]

Dan D'Antoni and Marshall made the tourney tonight, and this old tweet is relevant again:

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

They’re not quite Savannah State or the Houston Rockets, but yeah, Marshall is doing everything “right” with what they have to work with. #14 in avoiding midrange jumpers. #26 in 3pt attempt rate. #8 in denying 3pt attempts. #15 in 2pt% (when they take 2s, they’re regularly layups), #3 in quickest offensive possessions (they don’t try too hard to work the ball into tight spaces, leading to turnovers).

 

[TS9]

All three of the ACC's NIT participants are playing tonight. I assume we're all excited about this.