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Duke basketball 2015-2016 discussion thread

rome8180 said:
God, defensive rating is an utter crap stat. Just look at those numbers and tell me they reflect reality in any way.

If you count defensive rebounding as a part of defense, you can make a good case for DRtg. Most of the time, we count rebounding as its own separate entity, so yeah, the numbers seem off.
 
I mean, I get that defensive rebounds end a possession. But you're weighing defensive rebounds way too heavily if they cause Okafor to be one of our best defenders.

And it's not just defensive rebounds that are weighed too heavily. There's no way Quinn Cook was our worst defender outside of Pagliuca. The offensive rating numbers all make total sense.
 
Right -- they're weighted equally with other "stops" such as blocks and steals. It's a long and complex formula, but most of that is team stats -- the individual variance in it comes from individual blocks, steals and DRebs. Quinn accumulated the least of those, per minute, of all our guys. I'm not sure any of those are great measures of defense. The formula always leads to bigs doing better than guards.
 
ORtg is weird in its own right, IMO. If you look at TS%, eFG%, PER, OWS and OWS/40, all of those have Marshall and Jahlil in the top 2. ORtg has Marshall first, but Okafor 6th, after guys like Tyus, Amile, and Grayson.
 
Right, but for some reason the fact that offensive rating can skew toward small sample size doesn't bother me too much. I accept that MP3 was our most "efficient" offensive player, but that that doesn't mean he was our best. But we can't really look at defensive rating the same way. I'm not sure what it would even mean to be a team's most "efficient" defensive player. The meaning on offense is clear.
 
I mean, to me, both of those are probably best measured using Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency, rather than ORtg and DRtg. Yes, those still can be skewed by lineup combinations, but they're probably better indicators than solely stats-accumulation-based metrics.
 
rome8180 said:
Right, but for some reason the fact that offensive rating can skew toward small sample size doesn't bother me too much. I accept that MP3 was our most "efficient" offensive player, but that that doesn't mean he was our best. But we can't really look at defensive rating the same way. I'm not sure what it would even mean to be a team's most "efficient" defensive player. The meaning on offense is clear.

And just to be clear, I wasn't saying there was anything wrong with Marshall being in the Top 2. I just meant that Okafor was not really the sixth-most-efficient offensive player on the team -- he's Top-2 in nearly all other metrics, but 6th in ORtg.

Side note -- now I really miss Statsheet and their OffEff / DefEff stats. Does anyone else even have those?
 
My position is that PPP -- which is what a lot of offensive stats come down to -- does tell you something. And what it tells you is essential and undeniable, even without context. But looking at blocks, reb, steals for an equivalent on defense doesn't tell you much, since it leaves out what you do on every possession where you don't get one of those things. It's also possible to be an excellent defender, like Lance Thomas, who just consistently pressures the ball but doesn't generate many "measurable" stops like blks, reb, stls.

Is there something that measures PaPP (points allowed per possessions)? Obviously +/- does that to a certain extent, but less meaningfully since it involves whole lineups. I guess you'd need synergy to chart how many PPP opponents are producing against a given defender, and more importantly, how far off that is from their average. Holding Steph Curry to 1.00 ppp is very good defense. Holding Derryck Thornton to the same is not, sadly, so far.
 
Important observation on ORtg: I don't think the ones on sports-reference.com are accurate.

I've compared the player ORtg stats on KenPom, Statsheet (thanks, wayback machine), and sports-reference, and the first two always line up within 0.1 (I assume they round differently). The ORtg on sports-reference seems to always higher by about 3%.
 
Apparently there's some slight difference in the way they calculate it. SMTTEM mentioned it once.
 
thewiseben said:
I've always liked the Opp FG% differential as a stat. Has always "felt" right.

I agree. But is that a stat that is widely accessible?
 
The turnovers were fucking awful. Thornton is really annoying. He's the type of kid who I will love as an upperclassman but hate right now. He just looks so lazy out there.

Gotta bank on K figuring out how our offense should run if Grayson is sucking. We need a backup plan. Ingram just looks lost right now.

For as shitty as we looked to only lose by 11 was kind of amazing. You could tell who were the upperclassman. Everybody else just shat the bed
 
Do our shoes suck? Grayson and DT in particular seemed to lose their footing and fall down several times, but I never saw a UK player do it (and with all the drives to the basket they made they certainly should have if it was a slippery floor thing).

Grayson needs about two weeks of doing nothing but driving and passing the ball.
DT just needs to mature.
I think Matt's groin injury is still an issue.
Luke?
Jeter will be fine when he learns to quit fouling. Same for Ingram.
Amile and Marshall are rocks.

I think we'll be much better by February but I also think the ceiling this season is lower than we'd like.
 
I still think we have a super high ceiling, mostly because the three upperclassmen are playing even better than I thought they would (could?). It will be interesting to see how much better Grayson and the freshman get in terms of decision making. I'm not entirely sure I've seen Duke players make exactly the wrong decision as consistently and as often as those guys did last night. I mean, they made Austin and Jabari look like senior Scheyer.

I think the talent and skill is clearly there, it is just so totally unfocused. It is either that (1) K hasn't sorted out what direction he wants the offense to take, (2) they're simply not accustomed to lesser roles on the team, or (3) they are just plain stupid at the game of basketball. I'll hold out hope that the majority of it is (1) or (2). I kind of do think it is.
 
deepdarkblue said:
Do our shoes suck? Grayson and DT in particular seemed to lose their footing and fall down several times, but I never saw a UK player do it (and with all the drives to the basket they made they certainly should have if it was a slippery floor thing).

Grayson needs about two weeks of doing nothing but driving and passing the ball.
DT just needs to mature.
I think Matt's groin injury is still an issue.
Luke?
Jeter will be fine when he learns to quit fouling. Same for Ingram.
Amile and Marshall are rocks.

I think we'll be much better by February but I also think the ceiling this season is lower than we'd like.

DT fell down a lot in high school too. He's so quick-twitch that I think he goes faster than he can at times, if that makes sense.
 
I can think of at least 6 turnovers that were basically unforced and due to awful decision making that led to easy fast break points for Kentucky. I do think/hope our underclassmen are a bit overwhelmed at the moment and we don't have solid PG play to help direct them accordingly. Ulis is so good for UK last night.
 
K focused on turnovers in his press conference. We gave up 17 pts on turnovers. We take care of the ball and our defense looks spectacular. Our offense hurt our defense.
 
rome8180 said:
K focused on turnovers in his press conference. We gave up 17 pts on turnovers. We take care of the ball and our defense looks spectacular. Our offense hurt our defense.

That's pretty much what the eye test said too. You're gonna have a shitty fucking defensive efficiency when you give the other team that many fast breaks. I'd wager our half court defense was good to elite. But unfortunately it seems like the turnovers are going to be a problem for a while longer
 
I think the turnovers would be less of a problem if we just gave the PG spot to Thornton. Will he turn the ball over? Yes. He isn't perfect, but I think having a real PG, with real PG skills and a real PG feel for the game will help out half court offense a lot, and it will take the pressure off of Grayson to do everything. So much of last night was Grayson's fault with his awful decision making. He was literally the initiator of UK's offense play, after play, after play, with his terrible drives to the basket.
 
I'm going to stick the overall team plus-minus stuff in this thread. We don't have statsheet.com to even give us partial plus-minus data anymore, and I don't know of any other site that keeps track of the season totals, so Duke-Forum.com will be tasked with keeping track of it this season for Duke and possibly beyond.

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Data gathered from scacchoops.com box scores.
 

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