Duke Basketball 2017-2018

[rome8180]

I remember saying the 2012 team was a paper tiger because I felt like we won a lot of games we shouldn't have. This team is different: they should have won all the games they won, but they never should have been as close as they were in the first place.

On a more general note, even though our Achilles' heel is the same as it's been for years, I am still enjoying this team for the mere fact that their play style is so different. At least this isn't another small ball team whose defense sucks due to lack of rebounding and size.

 

[physicsfactor]

True. This year’s defense sucks because players don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.

 

[Devilsforlife]

True. This year’s defense sucks because players and coaches don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.

Think this was a necessary addition.

 

[rome8180]

Yeah, I am not really seeing where the improvements will come from if they ever do happen. It will have to be a change of scheme, but the pre-NC State press conference with Wendell doesn't exactly make me think that will happen. He says some really smart stuff about how he and Marvin position themselves as rebounders. Apparently they watch tape and even look at analytics. Then when he's asked what they are doing to improve the defense, he says "more communication and playing harder."

K is infuriating me more this year than ever. He's wasting an epic amount of talent against a weak ass field. Just compare the adjusted efficiency margins this year vs. 2015 on Kenpom if you want to see how weak it is. I really hope K steps down if we flame out early again. I'd rather see something new than a revolving door of squandered talent.

 

[aiw]

They shut good teams out for the last 4 minutes of games. How do they do that? Just do that for more of the game.

 

[childress22]

Although the overall effect on our defensive efficiency is the same, it seems like the problems this year are wholly different.

We're doing exactly what many on this board have asked for -- packing it in more, playing more zone, and we're actually defending the rim better. The problem is that we're defending the perimeter worse, and this loss seems to offset the gains at the rim and then some.

As Topher has shown, it seems like we're allowing (or at least, our opponents are taking) a lot more threes this year than in previous seasons. Opponents are shooting about 5% better beyond the arc than they typically do against us, and also having about 10% more of their total shots be threes, which has an effect on their scoring, obviously.

Defensive At-the-Rim stats (all from Hoop Math):
% of Attempts FG%
2012 34.7 57.9
2013 34.5 61.6
2014 34.8 62.7
2015 33.8 58.5
2016 39.5 60.8
2017 39.5 62.5
2018 31.4 60.4

Defensive Three-Point Stats (all from Hoop Math):
% of Attempts FG%
2012 24.1 31.7
2013 26.9 29.0
2014 24.1 30.7
2015 27.8 31.4
2016 29.6 34.0
2017 28.8 29.3
2018 38.2 36.0

 

[Pantone287]

Kind of feels like while the net results of plays are different, that's mostly due to personnel (bigger, slower dudes who help at the rim more naturally than close out on shooters), and that the root cause of the problem remains the same - inability to defend ball screens.

 

[childress22]

I agree that personnel makes a difference, of course, although that shouldn't make this team that different from the 2-big lineups we trotted out in 2012 and 2013.

However, to me, slow rotations to cover catch-and-shoot guys has been a bigger issue than PnR, at least in the memorable recent games (FSU, BC). In other words, it's mainly at least not the primary two guys defending the PnR that have been the problem. I'd also assume that teams are running fewer PnR sets against us since we play zone 50% of the time, but I have no idea if that's actually true.

 

[physicsfactor]

I don’t know how to explain what we’ve seen from the defense this year. It’s like the coaches know that they don’t want to give up as many layups, and they thought all they had to do was tell the man guarding the ball to back off.

 

[Pantone287]

Childress, I don't disagree that our rotations are shitty and slow in general, but that's not an independent issue to our PNR defense, since it opens up so many driving lanes that require the defense breaking down. It also seems like a more difficult problem to fix than PNR defensive scheme.

 

[physicsfactor]

Not doing this anymore. Let me know if the defense gets any better, and I might start watching again. I’ll probably just look up Bagley highlights for the remainder of the season.

 

[Duke Mu]

Well. Another disastrous game against State.

Defense nearly nonexistent, giving up >90 pig in conference.

 

[deepdarkblue]

Yeah, this is just depressing. What a gross waste of talent.

 

[skins]

Will probably continue watching just to see Bagley do amazing things but I’m not sure that is worth it.

 

[deepdarkblue]

With the quality highlight videos available on YouTube these days, no reason to torture ourselves with nearly two hours of this shit bomb.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

1 week til Miami.

 

[physicsfactor]

Lol

 

[bdotling]

Starters play like they are trying to conserve energy until the end of the game then whatever happens happens.

 

[rome8180]

I would happily go back to 2005-09 right now (except without the UNC dominance).

 

[deepdarkblue]

K has backed himself into a corner.

Excuses used so far this season:
"We're a young team"
"We're not a deep team"
"We've had too many games"
"We haven't played in a while"
"We haven't practiced enough"
"We've practiced too much (or maybe it was "too hard")"

This is all 100% on K. The only way it isn't is if, when K isn't around, the assistants instruct the players to not listen to anything he's told them.