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Duke Basketball 2019-2020

I didn't know where to put this so I'll put in here and hopefully get some responses for a discussion. So within the last 5 years IMO there are a lot of "What if's" in regards to Duke rosters, from players questionably leaving early to players reclassifying. So my question is, in a different reality, there could have been some very different, yet realistic, changes to some Duke rosters in the last 5 years. My question to Duke-Forum is, within those possible realistic changes, which CHANGE would you have most preferred to see occur because you are convinced it would've resulted in a Duke National Championship?

2017-2018: Frank Jackson, a 2nd round pick returns to Duke to become the full-time point guard and to develop his skills as a point guard to better prepare himself for the league. His decision to return as a sophomore means that Duke will not land Trevon Duval who will elect to commit elsewhere. Duke's 2017-2018 roster will result in:
PG: Frank Jackson
SG: Grayson Allen
SF: Gary Trent Jr
PF: Marvin Bagley
C: Wendell Carter Jr

2018-2019: Gary Trent, a 2nd round pick, elects to return to Duke for a sophomore season. Everything else remains the same since Cam Reddish, Barrett and Zion had committed prior to the Spring. Duke runs a line-up of:

PG: Tre Jones
SG: Gary Trent Jr
SF: RJ Barret
PF: Cam Reddish
C: Zion Williamson

2018-2019: In back to back years, Duke received commitments from two top 5 players who reclassified, Marvin Bagley and RJ Barrett. Instead or reclassifying, both players elected to remain in their class and remain committed to Duke. Everything else remains the same, the following rosters play out as follows:

2017-2018: Trevon Duval-Grayson Allen-Gary Trent Jr-Javin DeLaurier-Wendell Carter Jr

2018-2019: Tre Jones- Alex O'Connell-Cam Reddish-Zion Williamson-Marvin Bagley

2019-2020: Tre Jones-Cassius Stanley- RJ Barrett- Matthew Hurt/JROB GOAT- Vernon Carey

EDIT:

I expect that the 2018-2019 roster of Jones/Trent Jr/Barret/Reddish/Zion will be the winner. I toyed with the thought of including a scenario in which Gary Trent Jr returns as a sophomore with Bagley and Barrett both not reclassifying, but I thought there would be no debate here because a roster of: Tre Jones-Gary Trent Jr-Cam Reddish-Zion-Bagley would be overwhelming. You're essentially swapping Bagley for Barrett and adding a sophomore Gary Trent Jr. I didn't include this scenario because there would be no point in having the discussion as this is the obvious answer. To some, one of the rosters above may be obvious but I think there is a legitimate debate to be had on which of the 3 scenarios you would prefer.
 
Now, in this post, I will explain why I think each scenario is worth debating:

Scenario 1, 2017-2018, Frank Jackson returns as a sophomore: The big thing here is that Jackson was a far superior shooter to Trevon Duval. Jackson was a 40% 3pt shooter and I believe 77% from the FT line. Duval was 29% from 3 and 60% from the FT line. This is vomit inducing from any player, but especially at PG. Both players were explosive athletically. However, I do think Duval provided some value on that team. He made a lot of very difficult passes when driving to the basket on the interior which found Bagley and Carter Jr for easy dunks/lay-ups. He averaged 5.8apg and was under 3 turnovers per game. Jackson as a freshman was essentially 1-1 in A/TO. So while Jackson is just a remarkable upgrade in shooting, you are losing out on the playmaking ability of Duval who did make things easier for Duke.

Secondly, I will say this, and it's just my opinion: I don't think Duval is the reason we lost to Kansas and missed out on the Final Four, and in fact I think he played well and it was the best game of his career. A lot of people blame Duval (and IMO it's extreme overkill of a player people already didn't like) for Kansas tying the game in regulation. However, the staff elected not to use a foul, the staff started the 2nd half with a horrific 3-2 zone which was murdered despite the 2-3 playing well in the 1st half, and the coaching staff couldn't figure out a way to get Bagley the ball inside to dominate some European white guy who was like 6'7. In that game, Duval played very well overall. He scored I believe our first 4 points in OT, and he led the team in points, scoring 20 points on 9-16 shooting with 6 assists and 4 turnovers. He actually out played senior Devontae Graham. Would Jackson have played better than Duval versus Kansas? Would have Jackson have been better for the team in the regular season, resulting in Duke being a 1 seed instead of 2 and having a different NCAA Tournament path?

Scenario 2: Gary Trent Jr returns for sophomore year. This is what I expect will be the winner and probably unanimous, if anyone even reads any of this and puts in a vote. If Gary Trent Jr returns for his sophomore year it obviously adds much more shooting to the line-up. As it was, that team was excellent with a healthy Zion, adding a sophomore Trent Jr would've been an enormous addition and might've guaranteed an undefeated season. Would this have forced K to do to the obvious and play Zion at the center position? Would O'Connell and Javin have transferred?

Scenario 3: No reclassifications, setting off a chain reaction which alters 3 rosters. Without Bagley, the 2018 team is gutted IMO with Javin or Bolden starting alongside Wendell Carter Jr. An interesting scenario would've been if Knox committed and played the 4 next to Carter Jr, however, I don't consider this a "realistic" scenario since Knox committed before Bagley reclassified and committed to Duke. His UK commitment was independent of Bagley's decision. Even though the 2018 team takes a huge hit, I personally think both the 2019 and 2020 teams improve as a result of the decisions. Zion and Bagley together would've been just out of control and they could've forced fed both of them without RJ dominating the ball. Tre is probably given more room to facilitate, and we run the same offense we did with Bagley and Carter. This team becomes the "zone team" to hide the defensive weaknesses of AOC and Bagley. The 2020 team adds RJ Barrett, which is probably fine considering we don't really get much from Wendell Moore at the 3 anyway. Having RJ on this team with a sophomore Jones and Carey would create a 3 headed monster, although it's worth wondering if Jones takes the jump he did this year with RJ on the team. I do think this team would easily be a top 3 team in the rankings and probably wins the ACC regular season with RJ on it.
 
Slap the Floor said:
Now, in this post, I will explain why I think each scenario is worth debating:

Scenario 1, 2017-2018, Frank Jackson returns as a sophomore: The big thing here is that Jackson was a far superior shooter to Trevon Duval. Jackson was a 40% 3pt shooter and I believe 77% from the FT line. Duval was 29% from 3 and 60% from the FT line. This is vomit inducing from any player, but especially at PG. Both players were explosive athletically. However, I do think Duval provided some value on that team. He made a lot of very difficult passes when driving to the basket on the interior which found Bagley and Carter Jr for easy dunks/lay-ups. He averaged 5.8apg and was under 3 turnovers per game. Jackson as a freshman was essentially 1-1 in A/TO. So while Jackson is just a remarkable upgrade in shooting, you are losing out on the playmaking ability of Duval who did make things easier for Duke.

Secondly, I will say this, and it's just my opinion: I don't think Duval is the reason we lost to Kansas and missed out on the Final Four, and in fact I think he played well and it was the best game of his career. A lot of people blame Duval (and IMO it's extreme overkill of a player people already didn't like) for Kansas tying the game in regulation. However, the staff elected not to use a foul, the staff started the 2nd half with a horrific 3-2 zone which was murdered despite the 2-3 playing well in the 1st half, and the coaching staff couldn't figure out a way to get Bagley the ball inside to dominate some European white guy who was like 6'7. In that game, Duval played very well overall. He scored I believe our first 4 points in OT, and he led the team in points, scoring 20 points on 9-16 shooting with 6 assists and 4 turnovers. He actually out played senior Devontae Graham. Would Jackson have played better than Duval versus Kansas? Would have Jackson have been better for the team in the regular season, resulting in Duke being a 1 seed instead of 2 and having a different NCAA Tournament path?

Scenario 2: Gary Trent Jr returns for sophomore year. This is what I expect will be the winner and probably unanimous, if anyone even reads any of this and puts in a vote. If Gary Trent Jr returns for his sophomore year it obviously adds much more shooting to the line-up. As it was, that team was excellent with a healthy Zion, adding a sophomore Trent Jr would've been an enormous addition and might've guaranteed an undefeated season. Would this have forced K to do to the obvious and play Zion at the center position? Would O'Connell and Javin have transferred?

Scenario 3: No reclassifications, setting off a chain reaction which alters 3 rosters. Without Bagley, the 2018 team is gutted IMO with Javin or Bolden starting alongside Wendell Carter Jr. An interesting scenario would've been if Knox committed and played the 4 next to Carter Jr, however, I don't consider this a "realistic" scenario since Knox committed before Bagley reclassified and committed to Duke. His UK commitment was independent of Bagley's decision. Even though the 2018 team takes a huge hit, I personally think both the 2019 and 2020 teams improve as a result of the decisions. Zion and Bagley together would've been just out of control and they could've forced fed both of them without RJ dominating the ball. Tre is probably given more room to facilitate, and we run the same offense we did with Bagley and Carter. This team becomes the "zone team" to hide the defensive weaknesses of AOC and Bagley. The 2020 team adds RJ Barrett, which is probably fine considering we don't really get much from Wendell Moore at the 3 anyway. Having RJ on this team with a sophomore Jones and Carey would create a 3 headed monster, although it's worth wondering if Jones takes the jump he did this year with RJ on the team. I do think this team would easily be a top 3 team in the rankings and probably wins the ACC regular season with RJ on it.
Click to expand...

What is your day job?
 


Both three-year time periods will wind up being golden ages for Duke basketball, ending with senior analytics monsters (Shane Battier and Justin Robinson), clutch sophomore guards who could kinda shoot but not really (Jason Williams and Tre Jones), lanky white guys who could really shoot but took some time to break out (Mike Dunleavy and Matthew Hurt), big hosses inside (Carlos Boozer and Vernon Carey), and finally, national championships.
 
Frank Jackson was the guy I really wanted back for a second year. He would have been a monster, and we would have cut down the nets. I really wanted Winslow back as well, but that was less likely to happen.
 
So what are we going to ultimately think when we look back upon on this season? ACCT cancelled, NCAAT cancelled.
 
24-6 with two wins over UNC, a neutral floor win over Kansas, and that road win against Michigan State is a season I can live with. Tre Jones wins ACC POY and DPOY and Carey and Jones first team ACC.

I'm being serious. Given that the tournaments will be cancelled, this season was fine.
 
best4heisman said:
I mean did anyone have even a semblance of expectations for this team? I was too busy mourning Zion to give this team any real thought until November.
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We had no expectations, then they went on their little fake run where they looked amazing for three or four games and many of us fell for it, particularly considering how awful college teams are in general this year.
So we were excited about being the tallest dwarf, only to get our ladder kicked out from under us by reality and returning to the realization that we're just an average dwarf and this team sucks.
 
Most teams this season are average dwarves, though, unless they're Carolina bad. MAYBE Kansas and Baylor are legitimately good.
 
Slap the Floor said:
24-6 with two wins over UNC, a neutral floor win over Kansas, and that road win against Michigan State is a season I can live with. Tre Jones wins ACC POY and DPOY and Carey and Jones first team ACC.

I'm being serious. Given that the tournaments will be cancelled, this season was fine.
Click to expand...

A concise, non-hyperbolic post. The end of days may truly be upon us!
 
I wish we weren't playing today. Every game we play in the ACC Tournament will now decide how we feel when we look back upon this season. There is no middle ground here: Beat NC State and the remainder of the ACCT is cancelled and this is a successful season. A loss to NC State will leave a sour taste in our mouth.

I would have much rather ended this season at 24-6 with the ACC and NCAA Tournament being cancelled, with the final memory of the season being UNC losing by 30 points to a Syracuse team they dropped 92 on 2 weeks prior.
 
StopThePumpFakesShav said:
Slap the Floor said:
24-6 with two wins over UNC, a neutral floor win over Kansas, and that road win against Michigan State is a season I can live with. Tre Jones wins ACC POY and DPOY and Carey and Jones first team ACC.

I'm being serious. Given that the tournaments will be cancelled, this season was fine.
Click to expand...

A concise, non-hyperbolic post. The end of days may truly be upon us!
Click to expand...

Only wish we'd won the ACC RS title. Otherwise, I am content with this year. 2020 will always be remembered as the "Coronavirus season" anyway.
 
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