NBA Draft Discussion

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Numbers look spectacular so far, albeit against a relatively easy schedule. Listed at 6-5 and so young, I would expect him to be a high pick.

He will probably be the best guard coached by a former Duke player in the ACC this season. Was outside the top 100 recruits in composite and came in as an SG, so this is great work by Capel to identify out-of-position talent.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

I doubt this guy goes in the 1st round no matter what numbers he puts up, due to how he looks, but the beginning of some hype around him is backed by the numbers - 29% usage, 129 offensive rating so far this season, an incredible leap as a sophomore. It's sad to see Duke under Scheyer falling behind Princeton in terms of developing NBA talent.

 

[rome8180]

I haven't looked at all the mocks, but the latest two I saw had Flip at 10 and 18 respectively. Proctor was at 27 and 24. No other Duke players.

CMon projections:

Foster 28/McCain 12
McCain 15/Knuppel 10/Schutt 10/Harris 5
Mitchell 15/Evans 20/Power 5
Flagg 20/Mitchell 12/Power 8
Stewart 15/Ngongba 15/Flagg 10

Apologies if something doesn't add up. Idgeoaftc (I don't give enough of a fuck to check).

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

It would be maddening for Blakes to not come back if he's on track for 20 mpg as a senior on a title contender. Get the BA in 3 years and tack on an MA in 1. Then go get your Yale PhD. Enjoy a fourth year of basketball as a legitimately good player at the highest level. Tenure can wait one additional year into your 30s.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

The shift to freshmen sticking around is happening, as should logically follow from NIL starting.

 

[DurhamSon]

11. Filipowski
13. Proctor
17. McCain

Undrafted: UNC players

Fire up the NIL cannon because we're in a huge guard deficit again if we lose Proctor/McCain and Roach next year


Edit: These are archived #s, ignore

 

[physicsfactor]

Roach is a good gauge for how well Duke’s NIL game is performing. There should be a number that Roach won’t turn down, and Duke needs to be able to hit that number to get him back for his COVID year.

 

[physicsfactor]

Also, it’ll be interesting to see if Proctor maintains his position. Seems like his position in mocks is almost solely based on preseason projections and not actual performance. I could see him falling out of 2024 mocks completely if he doesn’t turn it on in conference play.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Never seen this 2nd name before. Sarr looks like a homeless Durant. Actually that clip makes Salaun look crazy good, like the 3s with that form and comfort are sustainable.

By the end of the season, after all the Americans are done looking like ass, we could have an almost entirely international top 10. This draft will be all about how to avoid being the team that takes Ron Holland.

The Pistons will take Ron Holland.

 

[dukebluedevils05]

11. Filipowski
13. Proctor
17. McCain

Undrafted: UNC players

Fire up the NIL cannon because we're in a huge guard deficit again if we lose Proctor/McCain and Roach next year

Am I crazy or did something change? Link shows Flip at 9 and McCain and Proctor not in the top 25.

 

[DurhamSon]

Am I crazy or did something change? Link shows Flip at 9 and McCain and Proctor not in the top 25.

Yup, the paywall bypasser linked me to the old page, apparently. That ranking makes a lot more sense

 

[physicsfactor]

Good. That’s what we want to see.

 

[childress22]

Not to be the downer, but if you look at his full board, which matches these rankings, he still has McCain at 26 and Proctor at 30. Foster's not until 68 though. Mitchell is not listed among the 100 names on the board.

Also, Harrison Ingram at #41.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

They're the same height, but Sheppard's 25% assist rate is the main thing separating him from McCain (12%) in my mind, as 6-3 should be workable as a starting PG in the NBA but probably not as a pure SG like McCain is trending toward.

They're both at 90% FT, and I assume their 2pt% and 3pt% will converge as the season goes along. Kentucky has somehow played a significantly easier schedule than Duke has per sports-reference SOS, Sheppard's 56% 3pt is highly unlikely to be sustainable, and McCain's 2pt% is catching up now that he's over whatever 2pt funk he was in to start the season.

Another big difference is Sheppard's apparent defensive activity. 5.6% steal rate and 3.9% block rate is borderline unicornish for his size, whereas McCain's defensive numbers range from pedestrian to bad all-around.

Will be interesting to see if McCain makes any strides in passing and defense this season. Coming in at #13 on 247 composite versus Sheppard's #47 is confusing given what they've shown.

 

[savedukebball]

Was McCain touted as a good ball handler/distributor coming in? Granted we have three good options as primary ball handlers seemingly ahead of him in the pecking order (Proctor, Foster, then Roach in that order as it stands now), but the fact we've seen him do so little of it would be very alarming to me. He's our best C&S guy and maybe we're just leaning into that as such a big strength? As you pointed out, the appeal of him as a SG is not nearly as high.

 

[rome8180]

There's also the fact that Sheppard is a guard who plays for Kentucky. That alone would make me draft him 20 spots higher than McCain. I'd probably just take him #1 at this point.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Feels like a season where Kentucky’s overwhelming talent advantage comes through in March, and they make Edey’s life hell with constant PnR, all their guards embarrassing him on their way to the Final Four.

 

[DurhamSon]

GONE

 

[Pantone287]

I give Jon credit for really pushing him to hunt his 3pt shot without any conscience. Feel like he's been ready to launch without hesitation whenever he gets any little window these last few games, and it's made him into a different player.

 

[rome8180]

I give Jon credit for really pushing him to hunt his 3pt shot without any conscience. Feel like he's been ready to launch without hesitation whenever he gets any little window these last few games, and it's made him into a different player.

And it's not just McCain. We've been emphasizing pull-up threes in transition. Roach took three in the first five minutes of the Pitt game. Only went 1-3, but I love it as a great way to get an efficient shot before the defense is set. McCain has hit at least one every game. Have seen Proctor do it a few times since returning as well.

In a recent post-game, Scheyer talked about the transition three being a "Duke shot." So it's clear that this isn't just something the players are doing but rather something he's instructed them to do.