TyusStones5
All American
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2015
- Messages
- 1,628
CK86 said:
You just have to defend home court.
You just have to defend home court.
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,143
Looking at individual player on/off court team efficiency numbers because they're so easy to get for NBA, at basketball-reference.com.
Draymond Green is going to get the max. Warriors are +0.080 PPP on offense with him on court vs. off court, opponents are -0.067 PPP on offense, total margin +0.147. Hometown Pistons are going to throw it at him and let Monroe walk without a second thought. At least 3 other teams will do it too. Just a matter of whether the Warriors want to match. He may struggle shooting when Reggie Jackson and KCP are the backcourt threats rather than Curry and Thompson, but his impact is too great not to give him the max.
Curry should win MVP, though Harden will probably get it because defense is still so undervalued. If it wasn't clear from all the other stuff, Curry's on/off numbers are the best among all candidates, including Lebron, who is putting up monster analytics numbers as usual, and Anthony Davis, whose offense still has a lot of room to grow. Harden's terrible defensive impact is not a myth. Davis has a massively underrated sub who is putting up really good numbers, Alexis Ajinca (20.4 PER), and this hurts Davis here.
Curry: Warriors offense +0.136 PPP, opponents offense -0.026 PPP, total margin +0.162 PPP
Lebron: Cavs offense +0.110 PPP, opponents offense -0.041 PPP, total margin +0.151 PPP
Davis: Pelicans offense +0.068 PPP, opponents offense -0.038 PPP, total margin +0.107 PPP
Harden: Rockets offense +0.135 PPP, opponents offense +0.041 PPP, total margin +0.094 PPP
Westbrook isn't in this ballpark. His defensive impact has been nearly as bad as Harden's, and his offensive impact is much worse. He's not worth looking at.
Lillard's defensive impact is slightly worse than Harden's. Irving is still a defensive liability but he's not in the same ballpark as Harden or Lillard this season. Irving's numbers are +0.096, +0.023, +0.074.
The entire Clippers starting lineup puts up ridiculously impressive numbers here, partially because their bench is so terrible. I believe Chris Paul has the highest on/off total margin in the NBA. Paul's numbers are +0.195 (absurd), +0.005, +0.190. Redick is apparently an excellent defender now. Redick's numbers are +0.090, -0.035, +0.125, which I guess means Redick is more valuable than Anthony Davis.
As for defensive POY, Kawhi Leonard is indeed incredible on defense, but not as good as Draymond Green this season. Leonard's numbers are +0.053, -0.055, +0.109. I believe the best defensive number belongs to Rudy Gobert, at -0.087.
Draymond Green is going to get the max. Warriors are +0.080 PPP on offense with him on court vs. off court, opponents are -0.067 PPP on offense, total margin +0.147. Hometown Pistons are going to throw it at him and let Monroe walk without a second thought. At least 3 other teams will do it too. Just a matter of whether the Warriors want to match. He may struggle shooting when Reggie Jackson and KCP are the backcourt threats rather than Curry and Thompson, but his impact is too great not to give him the max.
Curry should win MVP, though Harden will probably get it because defense is still so undervalued. If it wasn't clear from all the other stuff, Curry's on/off numbers are the best among all candidates, including Lebron, who is putting up monster analytics numbers as usual, and Anthony Davis, whose offense still has a lot of room to grow. Harden's terrible defensive impact is not a myth. Davis has a massively underrated sub who is putting up really good numbers, Alexis Ajinca (20.4 PER), and this hurts Davis here.
Curry: Warriors offense +0.136 PPP, opponents offense -0.026 PPP, total margin +0.162 PPP
Lebron: Cavs offense +0.110 PPP, opponents offense -0.041 PPP, total margin +0.151 PPP
Davis: Pelicans offense +0.068 PPP, opponents offense -0.038 PPP, total margin +0.107 PPP
Harden: Rockets offense +0.135 PPP, opponents offense +0.041 PPP, total margin +0.094 PPP
Westbrook isn't in this ballpark. His defensive impact has been nearly as bad as Harden's, and his offensive impact is much worse. He's not worth looking at.
Lillard's defensive impact is slightly worse than Harden's. Irving is still a defensive liability but he's not in the same ballpark as Harden or Lillard this season. Irving's numbers are +0.096, +0.023, +0.074.
The entire Clippers starting lineup puts up ridiculously impressive numbers here, partially because their bench is so terrible. I believe Chris Paul has the highest on/off total margin in the NBA. Paul's numbers are +0.195 (absurd), +0.005, +0.190. Redick is apparently an excellent defender now. Redick's numbers are +0.090, -0.035, +0.125, which I guess means Redick is more valuable than Anthony Davis.
As for defensive POY, Kawhi Leonard is indeed incredible on defense, but not as good as Draymond Green this season. Leonard's numbers are +0.053, -0.055, +0.109. I believe the best defensive number belongs to Rudy Gobert, at -0.087.
TyusStones5
All American
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2015
- Messages
- 1,628
Memphis and the Clippers are a part of the gaggle for second place in the West and they are playing tonight.
torontoduke
Legend
- Joined
- Nov 21, 2012
- Messages
- 13,107
Raptors are shite.
I like Ross & Amir for some reason, though. Fuck everyone else on that team.
I like Ross & Amir for some reason, though. Fuck everyone else on that team.
TyusStones5
All American
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2015
- Messages
- 1,628
torontoduke said:
They are third in the East.
rome8180
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 8, 2012
- Messages
- 52,111
So they'd play Boston then the Raptors? Meanwhile we hope the Bulls knock out the Hawks in the second round? Does that make sense?
Maybe the Cavs will luck out with their path like Duke did? Unfortunately they'll have to play the NBA's Kentucky in the Spurs.
Maybe the Cavs will luck out with their path like Duke did? Unfortunately they'll have to play the NBA's Kentucky in the Spurs.
TyusStones5
All American
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2015
- Messages
- 1,628
DurhamSon said:
They are technically tied for third as both are (48-32). The Bulls have the head to head tie breaker but the Raptors are listed third because they won their division. So even if the Bulls finish ahead of them since the Cavs won the division would the Raptors be third still but the Bulls would have HCA if they played? Some of this NBA seeding stuff gets confusing and that's not even counting the (2-6) mess out West with Portland constantly ahead of two teams with a better overall record.
rome8180
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 8, 2012
- Messages
- 52,111
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,143
Current title odds:
Cleveland Cavaliers 9/5
Golden State Warriors 9/5
San Antonio Spurs 5/1
Atlanta Hawks 15/1
Chicago Bulls 18/1
Los Angeles Clippers 22/1
No other teams worth looking at, IMO. This seems right with how bad the East is. I think Spurs 5-1 and Clippers 22-1 are decent value.
Cleveland Cavaliers 9/5
Golden State Warriors 9/5
San Antonio Spurs 5/1
Atlanta Hawks 15/1
Chicago Bulls 18/1
Los Angeles Clippers 22/1
No other teams worth looking at, IMO. This seems right with how bad the East is. I think Spurs 5-1 and Clippers 22-1 are decent value.
CK86
All American
- Joined
- Oct 9, 2012
- Messages
- 8,245
DrKlahn said:
I think it all depends on whether Millsap is healthy or not for the playoffs. If he gets healthy, they can beat anyone. But with the uncertainty over his injury, I think that's why the odds are lower. Also it seems no one trusts a team without the superstar in the playoffs despite their ridiculous team play and success this season.