UNC Basketball 2023-2024

[dukeboy911]

cormac completely shrinking when the lights came on was confirming. there's no excuse for letting that fraud do that to us.

Yep. That little piece of shit had his super bowl against us and I will never forgive our guys for letting a skinny white guy do that to us.

 

[Rollins]

someone had a great post on tdd which was just a reminder that dean smith invented the regular season champs title to boost fan morale.

 

[rome8180]

I was feeling better about them not winning a title this year until I saw their path. Couldn't be laid out more perfectly for them besides the possible stumbling block of Alabama. UConn probably will be knocked out before they get far enough to play them. Their bracket is absolutely brutal.

All UNC needs after this likely UConn upset is for Houston and Purdue to both bow out some time before the title game. Not that Purdue would beat them anyway.

 

[uncy12]

I was feeling better about them not winning a title this year until I saw their path. Couldn't be laid out more perfectly for them besides the possible stumbling block of Alabama. UConn probably will be knocked out before they get far enough to play them. Their bracket is absolutely brutal.

All UNC needs after this likely UConn upset is for Houston and Purdue to both bow out some time before the title game. Not that Purdue would beat them anyway.

I’m not sure how I feel about UNCs matchups. I don’t hate it but I don’t love it. I try not to over analyze anymore. I thought UNCs bracket in 2017 and 2022 was a nightmare yet we had big runs in both. MSU and MS state are both capable of knocking us out at 18 KP and 30 KP. The path could have been worse. Coull have had Auburn as a 4 seed. Could have has Iowa State as a 2 seed. Our path is more favorable than UConn’s murders row but hey anything can happen with the parity this year

 

[Devilsforlife]

I’d be perfectly happy with UNC’s path if they had Auburn instead of Bama as their 4. Unless a rash of upsets happen, I don’t think it’s a cakewalk at all.

 

[uncy12]

I’d be perfectly happy with UNC’s path if they had Auburn instead of Bama as their 4. Unless a rash of upsets happen, I don’t think it’s a cakewalk at all.

Right like the bracket is balanced as is. I could see Bama losing but I think all 4 brackets have some balance to them. The easiest out of the 4 is Purdue IMO

 

[aiw]

Maybe Kenny Blakeney can do us a solid and Creighton RJ Davis on Thursday.

 

[rome8180]

I’d be perfectly happy with UNC’s path if they had Auburn instead of Bama as their 4. Unless a rash of upsets happen, I don’t think it’s a cakewalk at all.

It's probably the fact that Duke beat Baylor and almost beat Arizona that means I can't take them seriously as threats to UNC.

Personally, I think Bama is actually the most dangerous team to them. It's a math problem for UNC. Obviously, getting a radically underseeded Auburn team would have been ideal, but I think UNC's mediocre 3pt shooting and volume could create real issues for them against Bama. Bama won't be able to defend UNC, but I could easily see them winning a 95-85 game because they made eight more threes than UNC did.

 

[rome8180]

I'm not going to pretend that I've watched any of these teams though. I don't even watch Duke.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

It's interesting because I actually think the easiest part of their bracket is Bama. A lot of it comes down to Arizona, who is now the Vegas favorite on all books to make it out of the West and would have more fan support in LA.

But Arizona hasn't made the F4 since we beat them in 2001 and Tommy Lloyd has been a tourney bedshitter so it's hard to take comfort in them.

 

[rome8180]

It's interesting because I actually think the easiest part of their bracket is Bama. A lot of it comes down to Arizona, who is now the Vegas favorite on all books to make it out of the West and would have more fan support in LA.

But Arizona hasn't made the F4 since we beat them in 2001 and Tommy Lloyd has been a tourney bedshitter so it's hard to take comfort in them.

Bama has one of the best offenses in Kenpom history and they take a lot of threes. Sure, they could flame out due to failure to defend, but they can absolutely beat a UNC team that's 219th in 3pt percentage and 216th in attempts. That's a massive handicap to start with.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Also we're probably making the mistake of underweighting the R32 matchup when we think about bracket path, because that's the thing that's most certain. UConn has the easiest 8-9 combo.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

It's interesting because I actually think the easiest part of their bracket is Bama. A lot of it comes down to Arizona, who is now the Vegas favorite on all books to make it out of the West and would have more fan support in LA.

But Arizona hasn't made the F4 since we beat them in 2001 and Tommy Lloyd has been a tourney bedshitter so it's hard to take comfort in them.

Bama has one of the best offenses in Kenpom history and they take a lot of threes. Sure, they could flame out due to failure to defend, but they can absolutely beat a UNC team that's 219th in 3pt percentage and 216th in attempts. That's a massive handicap to start with.

Yeah I was just hoping for Auburn. I also think UNC is comfortable with the breakneck pace. But I agree its a reduction to a 3 pt contest which you can live with if you're rooting for the 4 seed.

 

[Devilsforlife]

In 2016 and 2017, it was clear they had absolute glide paths to the FF and E8, respectively, the moment the brackets dropped (edit: though Arkansas did wind up being an unexpectedly tough game for them in r2 in 2017). It doesn’t feel anywhere near that easy this year. The 2022 bracket did seem tough at the time, but Baylor injuries and that goddamn St. Peter’s run softened it up considerably.

 

[rome8180]

It's interesting because I actually think the easiest part of their bracket is Bama. A lot of it comes down to Arizona, who is now the Vegas favorite on all books to make it out of the West and would have more fan support in LA.

But Arizona hasn't made the F4 since we beat them in 2001 and Tommy Lloyd has been a tourney bedshitter so it's hard to take comfort in them.

Bama has one of the best offenses in Kenpom history and they take a lot of threes. Sure, they could flame out due to failure to defend, but they can absolutely beat a UNC team that's 219th in 3pt percentage and 216th in attempts. That's a massive handicap to start with.

Yeah I was just hoping for Auburn. I also think UNC is comfortable with the breakneck pace. But I agree its a reduction to a 3 pt contest which you can live with if you're rooting for the 4 seed.

Auburn is interesting to me. By the metrics, they shouldn't be anywhere near a 4 seed. They're more like a 1 seed. And yet every time they've played anyone truly good, they've lost. They blow out bad and mediocre teams though.

I agree that on paper they're the most threatening 4 by far (besides the fearsome Duke Blue Devils, obviously). Interested to see if it actually plays out that way, though.

 

[physicsfactor]

Auburn and Bama both beat the hell out of decent-to-bad teams but lose to tougher opponents. Both have horrible Q1 record which is why they are 4s.

Also, Bama has fallen off a cliff lately. The last 6 games:
- Blown out at Kentucky
- Whipped a bad Ole Miss team at home
- Lost at home to Tennessee
- Blown out at Florida
- Won in OT at home vs Arkansas thanks to end of regulation collapse by Arkansas
- Blown out by Florida in SECT (down 24 at one point)

Bama could make a ton of threes and beat UNC, but I’m not confident they’ll even make it to that game.

 

[rome8180]

Auburn and Bama both beat the hell out of decent-to-bad teams but lose to tougher opponents. Both have horrible Q1 record which is why they are 4s.

Also, Bama has fallen off a cliff lately. The last 6 games:
- Blown out at Kentucky
- Whipped a bad Ole Miss team at home
- Lost at home to Tennessee
- Blown out at Florida
- Won in OT at home vs Arkansas thanks to end of regulation collapse by Arkansas
- Blown out by Florida in SECT (down 24 at one point)

Bama could make a ton of threes and beat UNC, but I’m not confident they’ll even make it to that game.

Yeah, that's part of why I said they could easily lose before UNC.

Having that good an offense and that terrible a defense gives you a high degree of volatility. Teams with those kind of splits don't tend to fare well in the tournament, iirc.

 

[rome8180]

Ultimately, I don't find anyone in UNC's region very compelling. I was hoping they'd be paired with UConn or Houston, but that would have required UNC being a 2 seed. Duke is to blame for this not happening.

 

[aiw]

Wagner has 7 active players lol.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

I guess it’s good Kansas isn’t their 4 now that their best player is out.