Bracketology

[physicsfactor]

I would put money on KP #15-and-rising Gonzaga ending up Duke’s 6 seed.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Yeah the current 7s are stronger than the current 6s. Gonzaga or Saint Marys for sure.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke as a 4-seed feels weird. Looked up the history. Duke has been a 4-seed only once since K started, in the 2016 Brandon Ingram season. K was a 4-seed or worse (including missing the Tournament) five times since 1984. Scheyer is 2 for 2.

A 4-seed has won the title twice in history - the memorable 1997 Miles Simon Arizona team as well as the long forgotten 2023 Dan Hurley UConn team.

 

[rome8180]

Would probably have been a 2 if we hadn't completely failed to show up for the two most important games of the season.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Tennessee getting crushed. UNC has locked up the West one seed. What else can go wrong

 

[rome8180]

Tennessee getting crushed. UNC has locked up the West one seed. What else can go wrong

I expect major injuries to Houston and UConn players.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

If you don’t have a sizable stake in UNC to win the title at anywhere from 15-1 to 30-1 aggregated throughout the season, I don’t know what to tell you. It’s healthy practice mentally, emotionally and financially.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

I will now win 10k if they win it all after tilting an hour ago with another few hundred bucks on them.

 

[rome8180]

I wish I had any money to bet on anything. This is the story of my life. I'm always broke at the wrong time. I can't afford to lose even $20 until next week.

 

[physicsfactor]

Creighton lost yesterday. Baylor, Kentucky, and Bama lost today. Unfortunately, Illinois has a bye tomorrow before facing Purdue in the championship, and Auburn has basically already won the SECT. There’s still a small chance enough other teams lost for Duke to hold onto a 3, but I’m guessing Duke ends up 13 or 14 on the S curve.

 

[Devilsforlife]

Really feel like conference tournaments have lost prestige for non-bubble teams/bid thieves over the last few years. More and more highly seeded teams have been going out early. The fact the committee doesn’t care about most of the games played after Friday doesn’t help.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Our only chance would be if we’re ahead of Kentucky and either Illinois or Auburn loses today.

 

[physicsfactor]

I’m still annoyed that Baylor is consistently listed ahead of Duke. Baylor played more Q1 and Q2 games. That’s literally the only “advantage”, but Duke’s NET is still better. And there’s that little matter of Duke beating Baylor head-to-head on a neutral court.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

In terms of comparison to Kentucky and Auburn Duke would have to hang their hat on:

Kentucky being 6-7 in Q1 games and oddly just 2-1 in Q2 games for a Q1/2 record of 8-8 which isn’t good. Duke is 5-4, 6-4 by contrast, so 11-8. Kentucky also has a Quad 3 loss. They have better big wins but I actually think they should be below us.

Auburn is 1-7 against Q1, with only win being at home. But they are now favored to win the SECT.

I would think Ill prob jumps us with another win today.

We need to finish in the top 2 of those 4 teams to get a 3. If not, not only are we a 4 but we’re a high 4 which probably means being rewarded with the East and UConn.

 

[CK86]

Our only chance would be if we’re ahead of Kentucky and either Illinois or Auburn loses today.

Good thing they're facing JAPANESE STEPH CURRY today and are GOING HOME! Nebraska should've beaten Illinois at Illinois if not for an epic referee screw job that forced the game into overtime. Today's a neutral court so hopefully none of those shenanigans.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

To add: Lunardi already has Illinois (and still KY) in front of us.

My sense on Illinois is they have to jump us with a win today because their game tomorrow against probably Purdue wouldn’t end until like 5:45pm and there’s no way the Committee will wait out that result (they prob have to submit the fucking thing by like 4) and wouldn’t want to risk Illinois winning and (unjustly) remaining a 4 seed in that scenario.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Yeah Nebraska and Miss St are the rooting interests today. Also need Purdue to lose to get off that overall one seed line and put UNC on the Houston or UConn side.

So yeah rooting for all like 6-8 point dogs today. Should go well.

 

[CK86]

Just need my guy Tominaga to get going today and Illinois won't know what hit 'em. Crowd will be on their side too if he plays well due to how fun he is to watch on a heater. If you watch that highlight clip, you'll notice that once he gets going, he becomes god mode shooting and passing while the neutral fans can't help but cheer along.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Yeah Nebraska and Miss St are the rooting interests today. Also need Purdue to lose to get off that overall one seed line and put UNC on the Houston or UConn side.

So yeah rooting for all like 6-8 point dogs today. Should go well.

And if you want to bet on the exact opposite of what Duke needs to happen, you can get that 3-leg favorites ML parlay at +175

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

And if we are a 4 seed it would be perfectly rational to root against us and for the 1 seed, to preserve the likelihood of a harder path for UNC. If we even get to the second weekend.