- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,079
If your eye test tells you Derryck Thornton just had one of the least valuable seasons in the past several seasons of Duke basketball, your eye test is wrong. Thornton actually had the absolute least valuable season, by an extremely wide margin, in the past several seasons of Duke basketball.
Sports-Reference.com maintains win shares per 40 minutes for every player since the 2009-10 season. Below I have listed the bottom 7 for Duke during that time, excluding Thornton and with a very low minimum of 100 minutes just to exclude walk-ons and other garbage time players. I included 7 instances because there is a large gap between these 7 and the next worst instance.
Josh Hairston 2010-11, freshman, 165 minutes: 0.090 win shares per 40 minutes
Josh Hairston 2011-12, sophomore, 246 minutes: 0.081 win shares per 40 minutes
Alex Murphy 2012-13, freshman, 194 minutes: 0.081 win shares per 40 minutes
Josh Hairston 2012-13, junior, 444 minutes: 0.079 win shares per 40 minutes
Josh Hairston 2013-14, senior, 284 minutes: 0.075 win shares per 40 minutes
Chase Jeter 2015-16, freshman, 254 minutes: 0.071 win shares per 40 minutes
Matt Jones 2013-14, freshman, 235 minutes: 0.070 win shares per 40 minutes
Josh Hairston kind of stands out here. Not only was he extremely bad for his entire career, he got worse every season according to this metric. Hopefully, Hairston is a one-time-only anomaly in human history.
Now, turn to Thornton:
Derryck Thornton 2015-16, freshman, 935 minutes: 0.048 win shares per 40 minutes
0.048 is 31% worse than 0.070, the 2nd worst number over this span, put up by Matt Jones as a freshman. 0.048 is 36% worse than 0.075, the worst number ever put up by Hairston. Not only is 0.048 the worst number by any non-walk-on or garbage time player at Duke in the past 7 seasons, it is the worst by an enormous margin.
We cannot draw sweeping conclusions about how a freshman's career will play out based on an extraordinarily bad first season. However, this is a hell of a starting point to have to improve from, and unlike Thornton's classmate, Chase Jeter, there were no obvious signs of improvement throughout the season.
Sports-Reference.com maintains win shares per 40 minutes for every player since the 2009-10 season. Below I have listed the bottom 7 for Duke during that time, excluding Thornton and with a very low minimum of 100 minutes just to exclude walk-ons and other garbage time players. I included 7 instances because there is a large gap between these 7 and the next worst instance.
Josh Hairston 2010-11, freshman, 165 minutes: 0.090 win shares per 40 minutes
Josh Hairston 2011-12, sophomore, 246 minutes: 0.081 win shares per 40 minutes
Alex Murphy 2012-13, freshman, 194 minutes: 0.081 win shares per 40 minutes
Josh Hairston 2012-13, junior, 444 minutes: 0.079 win shares per 40 minutes
Josh Hairston 2013-14, senior, 284 minutes: 0.075 win shares per 40 minutes
Chase Jeter 2015-16, freshman, 254 minutes: 0.071 win shares per 40 minutes
Matt Jones 2013-14, freshman, 235 minutes: 0.070 win shares per 40 minutes
Josh Hairston kind of stands out here. Not only was he extremely bad for his entire career, he got worse every season according to this metric. Hopefully, Hairston is a one-time-only anomaly in human history.
Now, turn to Thornton:
Derryck Thornton 2015-16, freshman, 935 minutes: 0.048 win shares per 40 minutes
0.048 is 31% worse than 0.070, the 2nd worst number over this span, put up by Matt Jones as a freshman. 0.048 is 36% worse than 0.075, the worst number ever put up by Hairston. Not only is 0.048 the worst number by any non-walk-on or garbage time player at Duke in the past 7 seasons, it is the worst by an enormous margin.
We cannot draw sweeping conclusions about how a freshman's career will play out based on an extraordinarily bad first season. However, this is a hell of a starting point to have to improve from, and unlike Thornton's classmate, Chase Jeter, there were no obvious signs of improvement throughout the season.