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Duke basketball 2015-2016 discussion thread

Luke Winn answers the nerdiest question of Duke's season so far:
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 ... ina-kansas

Responding to a Twitter call for Power Rankings investigation topics, reader @DukeForum proposed looking into “whether Duke is more efficient with two big men on the floor or just one.” This being a good idea and worthy topic, I looked into it using HoopLens.com’s lineup data. The Blue Devils have been slightly better when they use two bigs, due to a noticeable defensive split—0.92 PPP allowed by the big lineups, 1.03 PPP allowed by the small-ball lineups:

pr_12_10_15_duke.gif


* To clean up the data, I threw out the 25 garbage-time possessions Duke had with big-big combos of Sean Obi-Chase Jeter and Chase Jeter-Antonio Vrankovic, as those will never, ever happen in meaningful games. The three big-big combos analyzed were Amile Jefferson-Marshall Plumlee (the most common, by far, with 273 offensive possessions), Jefferson-Jeter and Plumlee-Jeter.
Click to expand...
 
Like I hinted at in the other thread, it's probably good that these two aren't that dramatically different, because given our personnel, we pretty much have to play a lot of both kinds of lineups going forward. There's just not that much wiggle room in the rotation, short of one of our top 7 getting injured, or increasing Jeter's minutes some.

I expect Kennard's (currently 20) and Ingram's (currently 27) mpg to increase a bit over time. Plumlee's might go down a bit. But those few mpg are really all we have to play with.
 
Minor point worth noting IMO: K is giving more offensive possessions to small-ball and more defensive possessions to big-ball. The slight differences might just be random so far, but I hope not. I think we can be confident in K getting it with his lineup substitutions when he has the opportunity to do so.
 



Good news I guess that he's not chalking this up to "hustle" or "grit" or any bullshit like that, and realizes it's more schematic.
 
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Although scheme didn't lose that game. Made it harder to win, maybe, but didn't lose it.
 
I mean i'd have like to have seen more Brandon at the 5 for longer stretches that game. Eye test take, but I thought that's when we went on that offensive spurt that put us up 7.
 
If "schematic" means "having only seven guys some of whom aren't very good right now" I agree.
 
I'd have liked us to not drive the ball the millionth time it didn't work.

I also felt that was not the proper last shot.
 
It was not the proper last shot. Still should have been made. Playing for double OT with a depleted team makes no sense.
 
Yeah, bad decision. Cannot have been made by the same person who told Zoubek to miss.
 
I think all or most of these conditions need to be met in order for going for 2 to be better than going for 3 when you're down 2 with a few seconds left:

1. You are a terrible 3pt shooting team (chances of getting a 3 are less than 30%).
2. You are a great 2pt shooting team (chances of getting a 2 are greater than 60%).
3. You are better than the opponent generally.
4. You are deeper than the opponent.

I think in the context of the Utah game, even with Poeltl fouled out, only condition #3 was met, and that's arguable.
 
Why Kennard didn't get the ball for a three is beyond me. I'm just thrilled it didn't go to Grayson.
 
It sounded like K made the decision to change inbounds plays after Utah got a look at the set-up for the first one. Wonder what the first one would have looked like.
 
The correct play would have been Kennard coming off a screen. I would have accepted a three from basically everyone on the court though.
 
My hopes for this college basketball season have been revised.
1) Neither UK or UNC wins (same every year)
2) Duke doesn't lose in the first round to a double-digit seed. Would love to make it to the Sweet 16 but don't want to hope for too much until I see us in ACC play with Amile.
 
childress22 said:
It sounded like K made the decision to change inbounds plays after Utah got a look at the set-up for the first one. Wonder what the first one would have looked like.
Click to expand...
The first one looked like fake early action setting a late screen for Kennard to the perimeter or a lob to Ingram. Matt actually threw the lob when the whistle blew.
 



Very bad dunk team, which is why they need to make more than 30% of layups going forward.
 
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